35
DIMENSION 1:
ASSESSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE FLOWS
According to investors, further increasing transparency
and better availability of
data, especially regarding the country’s mineral sector, along with sustained increase in
productivity growth and competitiveness would enable improving the financing conditions
on international markets. Downside risks include slower growth,
strong inflation and the
rise of political instability, which would undermine the government’s capacity to effectively
implement the significant and challenging reforms
37
.
The recent issue of a public bond is expected to also have
a spill-over effect on the
improvement in reporting practices and better focus on the transparency and communication
with the (major) investors. Issuing bonds offered “
diversification of funding. It is an opportunity
to establish a relationship with the capital markets, and it anchors reform progress. This will help
companies to improve in terms of corporate governance, such as getting credit ratings. These
are important steps as companies become more resilient and better governed
.”
38
Major SOEs
are gearing up to secure
an international credit rating, allowing it to tap into international
financial markets. This trend of upcoming IPOs and bonds sales by local firms will boost
corporate sector valuations and capital markets by introducing international reporting
standards, better governance and transparent decision making.
PUBLIC INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FLOWS
Uzbekistan is eligible for concessional financing, both grants and loans. The international
community’s renewed interest to support Uzbekistan provides a timely opportunity to benefit
fully from policy advice and technical assistance, particularly in public finance management,
to ensure a sustainable transition towards a private sector-led
growth model and avoid the
middle-income financing trap.
Since 2018, public international finance became a relatively more important source of
development finance to Uzbekistan. This trend was driven by a significant increase of other
37
Moody’s Investors Service.
38
Odilbek Isakov, head of the country’s debt management office
Figure 11 Overview of International Public Finance
Source: OECD, 2020.
Note:
Estimates and projections based on author’s calculations and IMF data (See Annex 2 for methodological
details).
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
4,5%
5,0%
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 (e)
2020 (p)
2021 (p)
2022(p)
P
e
rc
e
n
t
o
f
G
D
P
U
S
D
m
ill
io
n
,
co
n
st
a
n
t
ODA Grants
ODA Loans
Other
Official Flows
Percent of GDP (right axis)
36
DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
official flows in 2018 and 2019, combined with significant concessional lending to finance
the COVID-19 response and recovery in 2020 (Figure 11). Total ODA
39
per capita for the
period 2015-20 averaged USD 23. Considering
institutional performance, population size
and needs, especially in comparison to other lower-middle income countries, it can be
argued that Uzbekistan is under-aided (UNDP, 2016).
The World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Japan are
the largest DAC donors in
Uzbekistan (Figure 12). Since reengaging in 2008, the World Bank Group (WBG) has focused
on improving infrastructure efficiency, access to social services and the GoU’s competitiveness
and economic diversification agenda. The World Bank is supporting the Government’s
response to the COVID crisis through emergency project (USD 95 million) and budget
financing (up to USD 700 million) to increase health and social spending, and through the
reprioritization within existing approved projects to support the economic recovery once
the virus has been contained. The ADB’s assistance focus increasingly
on policy support and
capacity development as well as direct investments in the private sector and public–private
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