Unleashing the Ideavirus

Unleashing the Ideavirus
193
 www.ideavirus.com
benefits received change as well) the marketer can match expenditures to the
highly leveraged moments.

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Unleashing the Ideavirus
194
 www.ideavirus.com
The Future Of The Ideavirus: What Happens When Everyone Does It?
Interruption marketing (the kind they do on TV) is doomed to fail, because each marketer
who enters the field has more to gain by adding to the clutter than they do by trying to make
the medium work for everyone else. It’s the classic Hudson River pollution problem—once a
big factory is polluting the river, you might as well too.
Permission marketing, on the other hand, is self-limiting. When people have had enough,
they’ll stop giving permission to marketers, and thus there will be no clutter crisis. Sure,
some folks will cheat by spamming or invading privacy or buying and selling names. But
societal pressure and a few key government regulations should stop the cheaters.
But what about the ideavirus? After it dawns on marketers that it’s working, won’t we all be
flooded by offers to make us promiscuous and an incredible flow of free this and free that?
You bet. I think a few things will occur:
1. The race goes to the swift. Just as Frank Zappa and David Bowie supercharged their
careers by getting on CD early, some marketers will fill vacuums and enjoy profits for years
to come. Latecomers will get hurt.
2. The cost of spreading a virus will increase. The bounties to turn people promiscuous will
increase. The benefit to powerful sneezers will increase. When there’s huge demand for
recommendations, marketers will have to pay more to get them.
3. There will be a significant benefit to becoming a powerful sneezer. Everyone will want to
be Esther Dyson or Walter Cronkite, because that sort of genuine credential can be turned
into a profit for years and years. Thus, we’ll see fewer institutional efforts and more
individuals (free agents) who figure out that they can profit mightily by spreading their own
viruses (this manifesto is a living example of that technique).
4. It’s going to be noisy and loud and cluttered as we transition, with a few huge winners and
many satisfied marketers who dominate a hive but don’t necessarily tip. After that, once the
various media settle down, an equilibrium will return and (hopefully) the good stuff will win.

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