To enlighten investors on the impact of these breakthroughs and the opportunities they should create, we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report seeks to highlight

Three Autonomous
Strategies Are Evolving
Rigid, 
Limited 
Scalability
Perceiving/
Localizing
Predicting
Driving
Deciding
Slow
Solution Speed:
LiDAR & HD Maps
V2X
Camera Based
Steps To Solving For Full Autonomy
Flexible, 
Scalable
Fast
Medium

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Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. 
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2020
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Autonomous Ride-Hailing
Scalability Will Determine The Pace 
Of Autonomous Ride-Hailing Adoption
If Tesla launches its autonomous ride-hailing service successfully in 2022, ARK estimates adoption could approach 20% by 2025. 
If Waymo or GM is successful, adoption probably will be limited to 1% during the next five years.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
North America Autonomous Vehicle Adoption
As a Percent of Urban Miles Traveled
Tesla Adoption 
(Projected)
Waymo Adoption 
(Projected)
ARK Forecast
Note: ARK assigns a 30% probability that Tesla will launch autonomous ride-hailing successfully

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•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. 
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. 
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2020 based on data sourced from: “Didi Chuxing Still a Ride-Hailing Giant despite 2018 Safety Setbacks.” South China Morning Post, 22 Jan. 2019, www.scmp.com/tech/start-
ups/article/2181542/didi-numbers-ride-hailing-firm-covered-more-miles-2018-5-earth, Feng, Linyan. “Beyond DiDi's Safety Report: DiDi Posts 21 Million Rides Per Day in Q1.” EqualOcean, EqualOcean, 2 July 2019, 
equalocean.com/auto/20190703-didi-posts-21-million-rides-per-day-in-q1, Helling, Brett, et al. “How Much Does Uber Cost? – A Comprehensive Guide.” Ridester.com, 14 Aug. 2020, www.ridester.com/uber-rates-cost/.
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