Think Again

grit and ambition
: Uriel Haran, Ilana Ritov, and Barbara A. Mellers, “The Role of Actively Open-
Minded Thinking in Information Acquisition, Accuracy, and Calibration,” Judgment and
Decision Making 8 (2013): 188–201.
The single most important driver
: Barbara Mellers et al., “The Psychology of Intelligence
Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics,” Journal of Experimental
Psychology: Applied 21 (2015): 1–14.
The superforecasters updated their predictions
: Barbara Mellers et al., “Identifying and
Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions,” Perspectives
on Psychological Science 10 (2015): 267–81.
“Although small amounts of evidence”
: Kathryn Schulz, Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin
of Error (New York: HarperCollins, 2010).
They saw their opinions
: Keith E. Stanovich and Richard F. West, “Reasoning Independently of
Prior Belief and Individual Differences in Actively Open-Minded Thinking,” Journal of
Educational Psychology 89 (1997): 342–57.
“It’s not a lie”
: Seinfeld, season 6, episode 16, “The Beard,” February 9, 1995, NBC.
world’s top forecasters is Kjirste Morrell
: Personal interview with Kjirste Morrell, May 21, 2019.
identifying even a single reason why
: Asher Koriat, Sarah Lichtenstein, and Baruch Fischhoff,
“Reasons for Confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 6
(1980): 107–18.

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the more frequently we make fun of ourselves
: “Self-Defeating Humor Promotes Psychological
Well-Being, Study Reveals,” ScienceDaily, February 8, 2018,
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180208104225.htm
.