Think Again

you can tell a coherent story
: Michael J. Chandler et al., “Personal Persistence, Identity
Development, and Suicide: A Study of Native and Non-Native North American Adolescents,”
Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development 68 (2003): 1–138.
when people felt detached
: Kaylin Ratner et al., “Depression and Derailment: A Cyclical Model of
Mental Illness and Perceived Identity Change,” Clinical Psychological Science 7 (2019): 735–53.
“If you don’t look back”
: Personal interview with Ray Dalio, October 11, 2017; “How to Love
Criticism,” WorkLife with Adam Grant, February 28, 2018.
meet Jean-Pierre Beugoms
: Personal interviews with Jean-Pierre Beugoms, June 26 and July 22,
2019.
only 6 percent
: Nate Silver, “How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed Up on Donald Trump,”
FiveThirtyEight, May 18, 2016, 
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-
screwed-up-on-donald-trump
.
Trump had a 68 percent chance
: Andrew Sabisky, “Just-World Bias Has Twisted Media Coverage
of the Donald Trump Campaign,” International Business Times, March 9, 2016,
www.ibtimes.co.uk/just-world-bias-has-twisted-media-coverage-donald-trump-campaign-
1547151
.
It’s possible to change
: Daryl R. Van Tongeren et al., “Religious Residue: Cross-Cultural Evidence
That Religious Psychology and Behavior Persist Following Deidentification,” Journal of
Personality and Social Psychology (March 12, 2020).
“Mastery at manipulating the media”
: Jean-Pierre Beugoms, “Who Will Win the Republican Party
Nomination for the U.S. Presidential Election?,” Good Judgment Open, November 18, 2015,
www.gjopen.com/comments/44283
.
forecasting skill is less
: Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science
of Prediction (New York: Random House, 2015); Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment:
How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005).