The structure of the global catastrophe

Chapter 9. Technological ways of intended creation of natural catastrophes

For many natural catastrophes connected with long accumulation and sudden liberation of energy, there is a theoretical possibility to provoke them via certain technical influences. Thus for descent of start of process it is required much less energy, than it is allocated in it. There were even projects to cause explosion of the Sun by means of attack by hydrogen bombs - see Bolonkin. But it is not real, as process cannot become self-supported as in the top layers of the Sun the substance density is very small (nevertheless it is necessary to count more precisely as assumptions without calculations do not guarantee safety). It would be faster, easier to blow up Jupiter where many not burnt down deiterium and helium-3 and easier to reach a dense core, but also it, most likely, it is unreal proceeding from today's knowledge. Technically, for many reasons it is easier to deliver hydrogen bomb to Jupiter, than on the Sun. It is a question it was discussed in connection with downing on Jupiter of probe Galileo containing plutonium batteries which could, under the sounded assumptions, to be compressed, blow up and start chain reaction of burning of hydrogen. It has not occurred, though soon on a surface of Jupiter there was a strange stain, and assumptions have sounded, that nuclear explosion nevertheless has occurred. We will notice, that we cannot use this fact as the impossibility proof to start burning chain reaction in Jupiter because of possible effect of observant selection - namely if explosion has happened our discussion would become impossible. See more in “On the possibility of initiating an artificial explosion, the giant planets and other solar system”. On Russian http://www.proza.ru/texts/2008/07/19/466.htmlOther way to provoke natural catastrophes - destruction of natural protection (we will discuss possibility of intended destruction of an ozone layer later). Naturally, we can provoke catastrophes only on the Earth or in the nearest space.

Deviation of asteroids

The future space technologies will allow to direct asteroids both from the Earth, and to it. The asteroid deviation allows organizing anonymous attack to the chosen country. However in this case speech does not go about the global catastrophe conducting to human extinction. There are no asteroids on orbits close to the Earth which could lead to the guaranteed extinction of people (at least, more than 10 km in diameter, and even much more - see further chapter about force of explosion of asteroids) and which could be deflected easily. (However it is possible to deflect small asteroid, 10-300 m in diameter, a pebble and to hurt with it the chosen country.) To deflect an asteroid from an inconvenient orbit (for example, in the main belt of asteroids), it would be required the large quantity of energy that would make all invention senseless and is easy disclosable. However, there is a chance that supercomputers will allow to arrange high-precision space billiards, where infinitesimal influence on one small "pebble" which gets to another and so on, creates the necessary effect. However it will demand decades for realisation. It is easier to deflect a comet (to translate from a circular orbit on high-elliptic), which is in Oort cloud (and there are bodies of the suitable sizes), however will pass decades or, more likely, hundreds years while it will reach orbit of Earth. Thus, full extinction of mankind as a result of an artificial deviation of an asteroid in the XXI century is extremely improbable.

Creation of an artificial supervolcano

The more deeply we get into earth crust by different ways - we drill it, melt or blow up, - the more is possibilities to cause more and more strong artificial volcanic eruption. To provoke eruption of a supervolcano in scale in Yellowstone, possibly, it is enough to punch 5 km of a bark that makes a thickness of a cover of its magmatic chamber - and modern chinks are much deeper. Thus the nature of magmas with gases is such that it will make the way through a small crack, as water through a dam, more and more washing it away. That is influence which can cause supereruption, can be minimum, so to say, informational. An example: recently to Indonesia have casually got in mud-water layer and have created a mud volcano which has flooded 25 sq. km. Territories.

However it is necessary to remember, that approximately in 3000 km under us, under crust, there is a tank of compressed and overheated liquid with a large quantity of the gas dissolved in it - a liquid terrestrial core. If to give an exit even to a small part of its energy and gases on a surface it is guaranteed to destroy all terrestrial life very effectively.

Further, it is not known, how much of the core is ready in such scale to be cast out on a surface. The large area eruptions caused, possibly, by lifting plumes from depths of a mantia happened many millions years ago on the Decan plateau in India and in Siberia (area of Norilsk) and correlate with considerable extinctions of live organisms. Magma rises on channels-pljumam, for example, on Hawaii. However it not channels for substance of the core; it is considered, that hot, firm (very viscous) pieces of a cloak for the account of higher buoyancy which become liquid only about a surface for the pressure drop account upwards rise. And though liquid iron in the core is too heavy to rise on a surface, pressure of the gases dissolved in it if the suitable channel was formed could throw out it. - as like opening of champagne bottle.

The terrestrial civilisation will drill more and more deeply into the earth for the purpose of a mining operations, energy and for experiments. As a result, the risk of catastrophic eruptions will constantly grow. The project of profusion of earth crust by means of a huge drop (hundred thousand tons) of melted iron was already offered - Stevenson's probe. Project cost is estimated in 10 billion dollars, and it looks theoretically possible. The Yugoslavian astronomer and the researcher of global risks Milan Circovic has written article «Geoengineering gone awry» where put the project under the sharp criticism as dangerous to a terrestrial civilisation as it can, according to Circovic, lead to liberation of a large quantity of greenhouse gases and to cause irreversible global warming, as on Venus.

Russian geologist L. J. Aranovich proposed an improved version of the deep probe, based on immersion in the mantle a small nuclear reactor weighing several tons, which could melt his way. It can reach a depth of approximately 1000 kilometers per month. Estimates of the security of this theoretical project is not carried out.

High-temperature robots-miners also can become such dangerous tool. Japanese plan to drill an ocean floor up to a mantle. The project of a bomb against bunkers which, having fallen, drill into a surface as self-propelled heading shield and moves deep ahead was already offered. In the same way could operate and detonators of volcanoes. Such device can be cheaper than a nuclear bomb, and it is possible to deliver it to a place in the hardly noticeable image.

Any weapon which is suitable for struggle against deep bunkers, can be applied and to awakening of volcanoes. One of variants of such weapon (and standing on arms now in the USA) is the consecutive attack by nuclear charges creating more and more deep crater. Probably, what insufficiently to clear one supervolcano or simply large volcano for global consequences, but if to clear all of them at once extinction becomes probable. On the Earth are known now 20 supervolcanoes and 500 usual volcanoes.

Probably, that there will be a practical necessity to start a volcano to cool atmosphere by its emissions if the problem of global warming becomes very severe. At the moment the probability of artificial awakening of a supervolcano is smallest, as besides volcanoes there is a weight of attractive objects for diversions even if dangerous enough weapon would come into the hands of terrorists. (However in the review about six ways of the most dangerous application of a hydrogen bomb terrorists, attack to a supervolcano is allocated as main.) But in case of world war supervolcano explosion could become last weapon for the losing party. Technological possibilities for volcano explosion slowly grow with development of technologies of drilling and the nuclear weapon. Molecular manufacture and nanotechnology could give chance for cheap creation of the powerful machines necessary for discovery of volcanoes. But mature nanotechnology will give more simple ways to those purposes which could be realised by means of a supervolcano.

Intended destruction of the ozone layer

There is an assumption that it is possible to create the weapon which will result to very effective catalytic destruction of ozone layer. Nevertheless, even if the stream of a solar ultraviolet will be very strong and dangerous to people, they can be protected from it by means of umbrellas, films, bunkers, survival suits etc. However for all biosphere will not suffice umbrellas. The ozone layer can be destroyed and by Gamma ray burst. «Triple easing of ozone protection for some years, predicted by calculations, is capable to lead to destruction of the bigger part near surface plankton at the oceans, being a basis of all huge food chain of inhabitants of the sea». It is especially dangerous, if ozone layer easing coincides with easing of a magnetic field and strong flash on the sun. The ozone layer exhaustion belongs to number of processes which the civilisation can start now, and get results, probably, after decades and hundreds years in already postapocalyptic stage less capable to self-defence.