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program for the commercialization of space, focusing particularly on energy
production. By the mid-2040s, this development will have proceeded to
some extent but will still be heavily subsidized and in the research and de
velopment phase. In the course of commercializing space, the United States
will increase its ability
to work in space robotically, using humans only for
the most complex and exacting work. Substantial infrastructure will have
been created, giving the country even more of a head start.
Looking to leverage its advantage in space in order to improve its domi
nance of the earth’s surface, the United States will begin building on that in
frastructure. It will gradually abandon the costly and ineffective strategy of
sending heavily armed troops in petroleum- burning vehicles thousands of
miles away to exert its power. Instead, the United States will construct a sys
tem of hypersonic unmanned aircraft that will be based on U.S. soil but
controlled from space- based command centers in geosynchronous orbit
over potential target regions—platforms that I will call “Battle Stars,” for no
other reason than that it’s a cool name. By mid- century, a
hypersonic missile
based in Hawaii could hit a ship off the coast of Japan or a tank in
Manchuria in half an hour.
The United States will also create (quite secretly, since treaties from the
last century will still be in place) missiles that can be fired from space with
devastating effect, at very high speeds, at targets on the surface. If the plat
form were to be cut off from ground communication, it would be able to
conduct the battle from space automatically—if what was called for was a
quantity of explosives delivered to a precise point
at an exact time based on
superb, space- based intelligence.
Combat in the twenty- first century will require elegance of communica
tion. Most important in the evolution of space warfare will be the transfer of
primary command and control facilities into space. Land- based control is
vulnerable. By the time an image is picked up in space and transmitted
through a series of satellites to earth, and a command is sent out to hyper
sonic weapons systems, many seconds will have passed. Most important, the
more links there are, the higher the number of possible failure points, and
an enemy could disrupt that signal. An enemy could
also attack the ground
control center, the receivers, and transmitters. There will be many low- tech
solutions for disruption, but placed in space, the command centers will be
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seen as more secure and survivable, with unimpeded ability to communicate
with weapons and personnel.
Much of the science involved in these systems is in its infancy today. By
the
middle of the century, though, it will be online. Now stick with me
here. I am telling you what the technological world is realistically going to
look like . . . I’m not writing
Battlestar Galactica
here. These forecasts are
based on real technology, reasonable extrapolations about future technol
ogy, and reasonable war planning. Space- based platforms will have superb
sensing equipment as well as command and control systems. Battle Stars
will control unmanned subsidiary platforms which
will support the Battle
Star system. They will see the surface of the earth with extraordinary preci
sion, and will be able to order hypersonic aircraft strikes as needed—strikes
that will be able to frequently hit their targets in a matter of minutes. They
will be able to attack a group planting explosives by the roadside, or a fleet
putting to sea. If they can see it, they will be able to hit it quickly.
Using lessons learned during space construction projects in the 2030s, I
believe the United States’ future plans will call for the creation of a system of
three Battle Stars. The main Battle Star will be located in geosynchronous
orbit over the equator near the coast of Peru. A second will be placed over
Papua New Guinea, and a third over Uganda. The three will be arrayed at
almost exact intervals, trisecting the earth.
Most countries won’t be happy
about the Battle Star system, but the
Japanese and the Turks will be particularly alarmed. It just so happens that
one Battle Star will be due south of Turkey and the other will be due south
of Japan. Each will be able to use its onboard sensors, as well as remote sen
sors that orbit the earth but can stop and loiter for extended periods of time,
to monitor those countries. They will be, essentially, guns pointed at the
heads of both countries. And perhaps most important,
they will be capable
of imposing an unstoppable blockade on either country at a moment’s no
tice. Battle Stars will not be able to occupy Turkey and Japan, but they will
be able to strangle them.
Although the new space- based systems will have been planned for years,
they will be put into place with breathtaking speed. With rapid deployment
ordered around 2040, the systems will be fully operational in the second
half of the decade . . . let’s say by 2047, for argument’s sake. This deployment
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will be based on the assumption that the Battle Star is invulnerable, that no
other country has the ability to attack and destroy it. That
assumption has
been made by the United States before—about battleships, aircraft carriers,
and stealth bombers. There is a built- in arrogance in American military
planning built on the belief that other countries cannot match American
technology. Assuming invulnerability, though, however risky, will make the
system easier to deploy quickly.
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