The Next 100 Years

s u m m i n g u p
The United States is socially imitated and politically condemned. It sits on 
the ideological fault line of the international system. As populations decline 
due to shifts in reproductive patterns, the United States becomes the center 
for radically redefined modes of social life. You can’t have a modern econ­
omy without computers and corporations, and if you are going to program 
computers, you need to know English, the language of computing. On one 
hand, those who want to resist this trend must actively avoid the American 
model of life and thought. On the other hand, those who don’t adopt Amer­
ica’s ways can’t have a modern economy. This is what gives America its 
strength and continually frustrates its critics. Falling popu lations are re­
structuring the pattern of families and daily lives. Computers are trans­
forming, simplifying, and focusing the way people think. Corporations 
are constantly reorganizing the way we work. Between these three factors, 
love, reason, and daily life are being transformed, and through that trans­
formation American power is growing. 
Old institutions have shattered, but new ones have not yet emerged. The 
twenty- first century will be a period in which a range of new institutions, 
moral systems, and practices will begin their first tentative emergence. The 
first half of the twenty- first century will be marked by intense social conflict 
globally. All of this frames the international struggles of the twenty-first cen­
tury. 

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here will the next earthquake strike and what will it look like? To 
answer that question we need to examine the geopolitical fault 
lines of the twenty- first century. As with geology, there are many 
such fault lines. Without pushing this analogy too far, we have to identify 
the active fault lines in order to identify areas where friction might build up 
into conflict. As the focus on the Islamic world subsides, what will be the 
most unstable point in the world in the next era? 
There are five areas of the world right now that are viable candidates. 
First, there is the all- important Pacific Basin. The United States Navy dom­
inates the Pacific. The Asian rim of the Pacific consists entirely of trading 
countries dependent on access to the high seas, which are therefore depend­
ent on the United States. Two of them—China and Japan—are major pow­
ers that could potentially challenge U.S. hegemony. From 1941 to 1945 the 
United States and Japan fought over the Pacific Basin, and control of it re­
mains a potential issue today. 
Second, we must consider the future of Eurasia after the fall of the Soviet 
Union. Since 1991, the region has fragmented and decayed. The successor 
state to the Soviet Union, Russia, is emerging from this period with renewed 

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self- confidence. Yet Russia is also in an untenable geopolitical position. Un­
less Russia exerts itself to create a sphere of influence, the Russian Federa­
tion could itself fragment. On the other hand, creating that sphere of 
influence could generate conflict with the United States and Europe. 
Third, there is continuing doubt about the ultimate framework of Eu­
rope. For five centuries Europe has been an arena of constant warfare. For 
the last sixty years it has been either occupied or trying to craft a federation 
that would make the return of war impossible. Europe may yet have to deal 
with the resurgence of Russia, the bullying of the United States, or internal 
tensions. The door is certainly not closed on conflict. 
Fourth, there is the Islamic world. It is not instability that is troubling, 
but the emergence of a nation- state that, regardless of ideology, might form 
the basis of a coalition. Historically, Turkey has been the most successful 
center of power in the Muslim world. Turkey is also a dynamic and rapidly 
modernizing country. What is its future, and what is the future of other 
Muslim nation- states? 
Fifth, there is the question of Mexican–American relations. Normally, 
the status of Mexico would not rise to the level of a global fault line, but its 
location in North America makes it important beyond its obvious power. As 
the country with the fifteenth highest GDP in the world, it should not be 
underestimated on its own merits. Mexico has deep and historical issues 
with the United States, and social forces may arise over the next century that 
cannot be controlled by either government. 
In order to pinpoint events that will occur in the future, we need to ex­
amine now which of these events are likely to occur and in what order. A 
fault line does not necessarily guarantee an earthquake. Fault lines can exist 
for millennia causing only occasional tremors. But with this many major 
fault lines, conflict in the twenty- first century is almost certain.