The consequences and forecast for future after the covid-19 outbreak

The consequences and forecast for future after the COVID-19 outbreak

It is clear now that coronavirus has spread rapidly in almost all continents of the world. As the pandemic began, several questions arose about social, economic and political impact of the disease. This essay will discuss serious consequences of the disaster, its definite advantages and measures that governments should and are taking.

The spreading of COVID-19 has already had a devastating effect on the world trade and economy. As it is given in the last report of United Nation’s conference on Trade and Development the European Union countries and companies in the USA that mainly depend on production in China have seen too much damage. Because of coronavirus in China, decrease in output and export have exerted a negative influence on economy. In February amount of losses were 50 billion dollars in the world economy. A large proportion of losses went on to the European Union countries with a conservative estimate of 15.5 billion dollars. The economy of the USA lost 6.8, Japan’s 5.2, South Korea’s 3.8 billion dollars.

According to reports by academics and practitioners on the impacts of the coronavirus, the virus implies both a demand and a supply shock. From the supply side perspective, production is affected, on the one hand, because of reductions in labour supply as a consequence of the number of workers infected, thus reducing the number of people available to work, and because value chains are disrupted, on the other. Countries that rely on equipment and components from regions affected by the virus may experience disruptions in the production process. Demand for manufactured goods could reduce as a consequence of the pandemic. This usually occurs for two reasons:

First, the propensity to consume decreases as workers who are required to stay at home in support of “social distancing” measures tend to prioritize saving over spending.

Second, firms that are experiencing disruptions in the production process may decrease their consumption of intermediate goods.

In order to stop the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak, many countries across the world have started implementing very tough measures. Countries and world capital are under strict lockdown, bringing a total halt to major industrial production chains.

The world's economy could grow at its slowest rate since 2009 this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The think tank has forecast growth of just 2.4% in 2020, down from 2.9% in November. It also said that a "longer lasting and more intensive" outbreak could halve growth to 1.5% in 2020 as factories suspend their activity and workers stay at home to try to contain the virus.

The pandemic has affected educational systems worldwide, leading to the widespread closures of schools and universities. According to data released by UNESCO on 25 March, school and university closures due to COVID-19 implemented nationwide in 165 countries. Including localized closures, this affects over 1.5 billion students worldwide, accounting for 87% of enrolled learners.

The travel industry has been badly damaged, with airlines cutting flights and tourists cancelling business trips and holidays. Governments around the world have introduced travel restrictions to try to contain the virus. Restrictions have affected the supply chains of big companies.

The International Labor Organization stated on 7 April that it predicted a 6.7% loss of job hours globally in the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to 195 million full-time jobs. They also estimated that 30 million jobs were lost in the first quarter alone, compared to 25 million during the 2008 financial crisis. In January and February 2020, during the height of the epidemic in Wuhan, about 5 million people in China lost their jobs. In March 2020, more than 10 million Americans lost their jobs and applied for government aid. The coronavirus outbreak could cost 47 million jobs in the United States and unemployment rate may hit 32%, according to estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

On 18 March 2020, the World Health Organization issued a report related to mental health and psychosocial issues by addressing instructions and some social considerations during the COVID-19 outbreak. Due to doubts if pets or other livestock may pass on coronavirus to humans, many people were reluctant to keep their pets fearing transmission. Meanwhile, people in the U.K. tended to acquire more pets during the coronavirus lockdown.

There have been given some drawbacks of the virus above, but there some advantages of it. As strong quarantine regimes have been implemented in countries, people are staying at home dwelling differently from their daily lives. Images that have been taken from satellites show that the air over major cities across Europe is fresher. There has been a strong reduction in emission due to quarantine and demand for transport is low. For instance, 2865 tons of petrol were sold a day on average in January, on April 8 that was 871 tons.

People have a lot more time to spend with their family. They are calling their close and distant relatives to know how well they are. People began to think how they have lived so far and trying to know what kind of mistakes they have made.

It has been realized now exactly that professions like doctor, nurse and military as well as knowledge are of paramount importance in society. Human being has convinced his weakness in front of such sudden cases.

For the details mentioned above, it seems to me that it is significant for governments to support economy strongly. There should be put an emphasis on increasing aggregate demand. The countries may do so by giving money to their populations. Many states can have an increase in economy beginning in the third quarter of the year. It can be achieved by cancelling quarantine regulations step by step. We all can assist to accelerate cancellation of quarantine regulations by observing doctors’ recommendations. Moreover, all countries should cooperate to overcome this disease.