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WHY CHECKLISTS DECEIVE YOU
Feature-Positive Effect
Two series of numbers: the first,
series A, consists of: 724, 947, 421, 843, 394,
411, 054, 646. What do these numbers have in common? Don’t read on until you
have an answer. It’s simpler than you think: the number four features in each of
them. Now examine series B: 349, 851, 274, 905, 772, 032, 854, 113. What links
these numbers? Do not read further until you’ve figured it out. Series B is more
difficult, right? Answer: none use the number six. What can you learn from this?
Absence is much harder to detect than presence. In other words, we place greater
emphasis on what is present than on what is absent.
Last week, while on a walk, it occurred to me that nothing hurt. It was an
unexpected thought. I
rarely experience pain anyway, but when I do, it is very
present. But the absence of pain I rarely recognise. It was such a simple, obvious
fact, it amazed me. For a moment, I was elated – until this little revelation slipped
from my mind again.
At a classical recital, an orchestra performed Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony. A
storm of enthusiasm gripped the concert hall.
During the ode in the fourth
movement, tears of joy could be seen here and there. How fortunate we are that
this symphony exists, I thought. But is that really true? Would we be less happy
without the work? Probably not. Had the symphony never been composed, no
one would miss it. The director would receive no angry calls saying: ‘Please have
this symphony written and performed immediately.’ In short, what exists means a
lot more than what is missing. Science calls this the
feature-positive effect
.
Prevention campaigns utilise this well. ‘Smoking causes lung cancer’ is much
more powerful than ‘Not smoking leads to a life free of lung cancer.’ Auditors and
other professionals who employ checklists are prone to the
feature-positive effect
:
outstanding tax declarations are immediately obvious because they feature on
their lists. What does not appear, however,
is more artistic fraud, such as the
goings-on at Enron and with Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Also absent are the
undertakings of ‘rogue traders’, such as Nick Leeson and Jerome Kerviel, to
whom Barings and Société Générale fell victim. Financial
vagaries of this kind
are not on any checklist. And they do not have to be illegal: a mortgage bank will
be on the lookout for credit risk due to a drop in the debtor’s income because this
appears on its list; however it will overlook the devaluation of property, say,
through the construction of an incineration plant in the vicinity.
Suppose you manufacture a dubious product, such as a salad dressing with a
high level of cholesterol. What do you do? On the label, you promote the twenty
different vitamins in the dressing and omit the cholesterol level. Consumers won’t
notice its absence. And the positive, present features will make sure that they feel
safe and informed.
In
academia, we constantly encounter the
feature-positive effect
. The
confirmation of hypotheses leads to publications and, in exceptional cases, these
are rewarded with Nobel prizes. On the other hand, the falsification of a
hypothesis is a lot harder to get published, and as far as I know there has never
been a Nobel Prize awarded for this. However, such falsification is as
scientifically valuable as confirmation. Another consequence of the effect is that
we are also much more open to positive advice (do X)
than to negative
suggestions (forget about Y) – no matter how useful the latter may be.
In conclusion: we have problems perceiving non-events. We are blind to what
does not exist. We realise if there is a war, but we do not appreciate the absence
of war during peacetime. If we are healthy, we rarely think about being sick. Or, if
we get off the plane in Cancun, we do not stop to notice that we did not crash. If
we thought more frequently about absence, we might well be happier. But it is
tough mental work. The greatest philosophical question is why does something
and not
nothing
exist? Don’t
expect a quick answer; rather, the question itself
represents a useful instrument for combating the
feature-positive effect
.
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