The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions

See also Story Bias (ch. 13); Self-Serving Bias (ch. 45)

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97
THE STONE-AGE HUNT FOR SCAPEGOATS
Fallacy of the Single Cause
Chris Matthews is one of MSNBC’s top journalists. In his news show, so-called
political experts are wheeled on one after the other and interviewed. I’ve never
understood what a political expert is, or why such a career is worthwhile. In 2003,
the U.S. invasion of Iraq was the issue on everybody’s lips. More important than
the experts’ answers were Chris Matthews’ questions: ‘What is 
the
motive
behind
the war?’ ‘I wanted to know whether 9/11 is 
the reason
, because a lot of people
think it’s payback?’ ‘Do you think that the weapons of mass destruction were 
the
reason
for this war?’ ‘Why do you think we invaded Iraq? The 
real reason
, not the
sales pitch?’ And so on.
I can’t abide questions like that any more. They are symptomatic of the most
common of all mental errors, a mistake for which, strangely enough, there is no
everyday term. For now, the awkward phrase, the 
fallacy of the single cause
, will
have to do.
Five years later, in 2008, panic reigned in the financial markets. Banks caved in
and had to be nursed back to health with tax dollars. Investors, politicians and
journalists probed furiously for the root of the crisis: Greenspan’s loose monetary
policy? The stupidity of investors? The dubious rating agencies? Corrupt
auditors? Bad risk models? Pure greed? Not a single one, and yet every one of
these, is the cause.
A balmy Indian summer, a friend’s divorce, the First World War, cancer, a
school shooting, the worldwide success of a company, the invention of writing –
any clear-thinking person knows that no single factor leads to such events.
Rather, there are hundreds, thousands, an infinite number of factors that add up.
Still, we keep trying to pin the blame on just one.
‘When an apple ripens and falls – what makes it fall? Is it that it is attracted to
the ground, is it that the stem withers, is it that the sun has dried it up, that is has
grown heavier, that the wind shakes it, that the boy standing underneath it wants
to eat it? No one thing is the cause.’ In this passage from 
War and Peace
, Tolstoy
hit the nail on the head.

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Suppose you are the product manager for a well-known breakfast cereal brand.
You have just launched an organic, low-sugar variety. After a month, it’s painfully
clear that the new product is a flop. How do you go about investigating the
cause? First, you know that there will never be one sole factor. Take a sheet of
paper and sketch out all the potential reasons. Do the same for the reasons
behind these reasons. After a while, you will have a network of possible
influencing factors. Second, highlight those you can change and delete those you
cannot (such as ‘human nature’). Third, conduct empirical tests by varying the
highlighted factors in different markets. This costs time and money, but it’s the
only way to escape the swamp of superficial assumptions.
T h e 
fallacy of the single cause
is as ancient as it is dangerous. We have
learned to see people as the ‘masters of their own destinies’. Aristotle proclaimed
this 2,500 years ago. Today we know that it is wrong. The notion of free will is up
for debate. Our actions are brought about by the interaction of thousands of
factors – from genetic predisposition to upbringing, from education to the
concentration of hormones between individual brain cells. Still we hold firmly to
the old image of self-governance. This is not only wrong but also morally
questionable. As long as we believe in singular reasons, we will always be able
to trace triumphs or disasters back to individuals and stamp them ‘responsible’.
The idiotic hunt for a scapegoat goes hand-in-hand with the exercise of power – a
game that people have been playing for thousands of years.
And yet, the 
fallacy of the single cause
is so popular that Tracy Chapman was
able to build her worldwide success on it. ‘Give Me One Reason’ is the song that
secured her success. But hold on – weren’t there a few others, too?