The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions


See also Illusion of Control (ch. 17); Self-Serving Bias (ch. 45); Confirmation Bias (ch



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See also Illusion of Control (ch. 17); Self-Serving Bias (ch. 45); Confirmation Bias (ch.
7–8); Not-Invented-Here Syndrome (ch. 74)


68
WHY YOU SHOULD SET FIRE TO YOUR SHIPS
Inability to Close Doors
Next to my bed, two dozen books are stacked high. I have dipped in and out of all
of them, but am unable to part with even one. I know that sporadic reading won’t
help me achieve any real insights, despite the many hours I put in, and that I
should really devote myself to one book at a time. So why am I still juggling all
twenty-four?
I know a man who is dating three women. He is in love with all three and can
imagine starting a family with any of them. However, he simply doesn’t have the
heart to choose just one, because then he would be passing up on the other two
for good. If he refrains from deciding, all options remain open. The downside is
that no real relationship will develop.
In the third century B.C., General Xiang Yu sent his army across the Yangtze
River to take on the Qin Dynasty. While his troops slept, he ordered all the ships
to be set alight. The next day he told them: ‘You now have a choice: Either you
fight to win or you die.’ By removing the option of retreat, he switched their focus
to the only thing that mattered: the battle. Spanish conquistador Cortés used the
same motivational trick in the sixteenth century. After landing on the east coast of
Mexico, he sank his own ship.
Xiang Yu and Cortés are exceptions. We mere mortals do everything we can to
keep open the maximum number of options. Psychology professors Dan Ariely
and Jiwoong Shin demonstrated the strength of this instinct using a computer
game. Players started with 100 points, and on the screen in front of them, three
doors appeared – a red one, a blue one and a green one. Opening a door cost a
point, but for every room they entered, they could accrue more points. The players
reacted logically: they found the most fruitful room, and holed up there for the
whole session. Ariely and Shin then changed the rules. If doors were not opened
within twelve moves, they started shrinking on the screen and eventually
vanished. Players now rushed from door to door to secure access to all potential
treasure troves. All this unproductive scrambling meant they scored 15% fewer
points than in the previous game. The organisers then added another twist:


opening doors now cost three points. The same anxiety kicked in: players frittered
away their points trying to keep all doors open. Even when the subjects learned
how many points were hidden in each room, nothing changed. Sacrificing options
was a price they were not willing to pay.
Why do we act so irrationally? Because the downside to such behaviour is not
always apparent. In the financial markets, things are clear: a financial option on a
security always costs something. There is no such thing as a free option, but in
most other realms, options seem to be free. This is an illusion, however. They
also come at a price, but the price tag is often hidden and intangible: each
decision costs mental energy and eats up precious time for thinking and living.
CEOs who examine every possible expansion option often choose none in the
end. Companies that aim to address all customer segments end up addressing
no one. Salespeople who chase every single lead close no deals.
We are obsessed with having as many irons as possible in the fire, ruling
nothing out and being open to everything. However, this can easily destroy
success. We must learn to close doors. A business strategy is primarily a
statement on what 
not
to engage in. Adopt a life strategy similar to a corporate
strategy: write down what 
not
to pursue in your life. In other words, make
calculated decisions to disregard certain possibilities and when an option shows
up, test it against your not-to-pursue list. It will not only keep you from trouble but
also save you lots of thinking time. Think hard once and then just consult your list
instead of having to make up your mind whenever a new door cracks open. Most
doors are not worth going through, even when the handle seems to turn so
effortlessly.

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