The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions

Participants with low CRT results, however, tend to believe in God and ‘the
immortality of the soul’, and have often had divine experiences. This makes
sense: the more intuitively people make decisions, the less rationally they query
religious beliefs.
If you are less than pleased with your CRT score and want to improve it, start
by greeting even the simplest logical questions with incredulity. Not everything
that seems plausible is true. Reject the easy answers that pop into your head. So,
one more try: you are travelling from A to B. On the way there, you drive at 100
mph and on the way back, at 50 mph. What was your average speed? 75? Slow
down, slow down!
See also Hyperbolic Discounting (ch. 51); Decision Fatigue (ch. 53); Exponential
Growth (ch. 34); Gambler’s Fallacy (ch. 29); The Problem With Averages (ch. 55)

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64
HOW TO EXPOSE A CHARLATAN
Forer Effect
Dear reader, it may surprise you, but I know you personally. This is how I would
sum you up: ‘You have a great need for other people to like and admire you. You
have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused
capacity, which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some
personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Your
sexual adjustment has presented problems for you. Disciplined and self-
controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you
have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the
right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become
dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself as
an independent thinker and do not accept others’ statements without satisfactory
proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At
times you are extroverted, affable and sociable while at other times you are
introverted, wary and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty
unrealistic. Security is one of your major goals in life.’
Do you recognise yourself? On a scale from 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent), how was
my assessment?
In 1948, psychologist Bertram Forer crafted this exact passage using astrology
columns from various magazines. He then gave it to his students to read,
suggesting that each person was getting a personalised assessment. On
average, the students rated their characterisations 4.3 out of five, i.e. they gave
Forer an accuracy score of 86%. The experiment was repeated hundreds of times
in the decades that followed, with virtually identical results.
Most likely you gave the text a 4 or 5, too. People tend to identify many of their
own traits in such universal descriptions. Science labels this tendency the 
Forer
effect
(or the 
Barnum effect
). The 
Forer effect
explains why the pseudo-sciences
work so well – astrology, astrotherapy, the study of handwriting, biorhythm
analysis, palmistry, tarot-card readings and séances with the dead.
What’s behind the 
Forer effect
? First, the majority of statements in Forer’s

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passage are so general that they relate to everyone: ‘Sometimes you seriously
doubt your actions.’ Who doesn’t? Second, we tend to accept flattering
statements that don’t apply to us: ‘You are proud of your independent thinking.’
Obviously! Who sees himself or herself as a mindless follower? Third, the so-
ca l l e d 
feature positive effect
plays a part: the text contains no negative
statements; it states only what we are, even though the absence of characteristics
is an equally important part of a person’s make-up. Fourth, the father of all the
fallacies, the 
confirmation bias
: we accept whatever corresponds to our self-
image and unconsciously filter everything else out. What remains is a coherent
portrait.
Whatever tricks astrologers and palm readers can turn, consultants and
analysts can too: ‘The stock has significant growth potential, even in a very
competitive environment. The company lacks the necessary impetus to fully
realise and implement ideas from the development team. Management is made
up of experienced industry professionals; however, hints of bureaucratisation are
noticeable. A look at the profit and loss statement clearly shows that savings can
be made. We advise the company to focus even more closely on emerging
economies to secure future market share.’ Sounds about right, no?
How do you rate the quality of such a guru – for example, an astrologer? Pick
twenty people and secretly assign each a number. Have him characterise the
people and write his assessments down on cards. To ensure anonymity,