|
Tanlangan iqtisodiyotlar:2017-2020 yillar joriy balansi
|
Milliard dollar
|
Jahon YaIMning ulushi
|
YaIMning ulushi
|
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020 yilgi loyiha
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020 yilgi loyiha
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020 yilgi loyiha
|
Rivojlangan iqtisodiyot
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avstraliya
|
–35
|
–29
|
8
|
15
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–2.6
|
–2.0
|
0.6
|
1.2
|
Belgiya
|
6
|
–8
|
–7
|
–3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.2
|
–1.4
|
–1.2
|
–0.6
|
Kanada
|
–46
|
–43
|
–35
|
–57
|
–0.1
|
–0.1
|
0.0
|
–0.1
|
–2.8
|
–2.5
|
–2.0
|
–3.7
|
Frantsiya
|
–20
|
–16
|
–18
|
–12
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–0.8
|
–0.6
|
–0.7
|
–0.5
|
Germaniya
|
287
|
292
|
275
|
199
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
7.8
|
7.4
|
7.1
|
5.6
|
Gonkong SAR
|
16
|
14
|
23
|
21
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
4.6
|
3.7
|
6.2
|
5.9
|
Italiya
|
50
|
52
|
59
|
61
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
2.6
|
2.5
|
3.0
|
3.6
|
Yaponiya
|
203
|
177
|
184
|
157
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
4.2
|
3.6
|
3.6
|
3.2
|
Koreya
|
75
|
77
|
60
|
51
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
4.6
|
4.5
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
Gollandiya
|
90
|
99
|
93
|
66
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
10.8
|
10.9
|
10.2
|
8.0
|
Singapur
|
56
|
64
|
63
|
44
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
16.3
|
17.2
|
17.0
|
13.0
|
Ispaniya
|
35
|
28
|
28
|
22
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.7
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
Shvetsiya
|
17
|
14
|
22
|
14
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
3.1
|
2.5
|
4.2
|
2.8
|
Shveytsariya
|
44
|
58
|
81
|
57
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
9.8
|
9.8
|
11.5
|
8.5
|
Birlashgan Qirollik
|
–93
|
–111
|
–107
|
–88
|
–0.1
|
–0.1
|
–0.1
|
–0.1
|
–3.5
|
–3.9
|
–3.8
|
–3.5
|
Qo'shma Shtatlar
|
–440
|
–491
|
–498
|
–402
|
–0.5
|
–0.6
|
–0.6
|
–0.5
|
–2.3
|
–2.4
|
–2.3
|
–2.0
|
Rivojlanayotgan bozor va rivojlanayotgan iqtisodiyotlar
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Argentina
|
–31
|
–27
|
–3
|
…
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
…
|
–4.8
|
–5.2
|
–0.8
|
…
|
Braziliya
|
–15
|
–42
|
–49
|
–22
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–0.1
|
0.0
|
–0.7
|
–2.2
|
–2.7
|
–1.7
|
Xitoy
|
195
|
25
|
141
|
195
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
1.6
|
0.2
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
Hindiston1
|
–49
|
–57
|
–27
|
–9
|
–0.1
|
–0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–1.8
|
–2.1
|
–0.9
|
–0.3
|
Indoneziya
|
–16
|
–31
|
–30
|
–18
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–1.6
|
–2.9
|
–2.7
|
–1.6
|
Malayziya
|
9
|
8
|
12
|
2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.8
|
2.2
|
3.4
|
0.5
|
Meksika
|
–20
|
–25
|
–4
|
–2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–1.8
|
–2.1
|
–0.3
|
–0.2
|
Polsha
|
0
|
–6
|
3
|
9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–1.0
|
0.5
|
1.5
|
Rossiya
|
32
|
114
|
65
|
–2
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
2.1
|
6.8
|
3.8
|
–0.1
|
Saudiya Arabistoni
|
10
|
72
|
47
|
–32
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
1.5
|
9.2
|
5.9
|
–4.9
|
Janubiy Afrika
|
–9
|
–13
|
–11
|
–5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–2.5
|
–3.5
|
–3.0
|
–1.8
|
Tailand
|
44
|
28
|
38
|
25
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
9.6
|
5.6
|
7.0
|
4.9
|
kurka
|
–41
|
–21
|
9
|
0.1
|
–0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
–4.8
|
–2.7
|
1.2
|
0.0
|
Memorandum bandi: 2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
2.7
|
2.3
|
Evro hududi
|
393
|
426
|
359
|
274
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
Statistik kelishmovchilik
|
394
|
315
|
387
|
39
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.0
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
Umumiy ortiqcha
|
1,439
|
1,495
|
1,465
|
1,078
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
1.3
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
Ulardan: Iqtisodiy rivojlangan mamlakatlar
|
1,038
|
1,074
|
1,042
|
824
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
Umumiy kamchiliklar
|
–1,045
|
–1,180
|
–1,078
|
–1,039
|
–1.3
|
–1.4
|
–1.2
|
–1.3
|
–2.6
|
–2.0
|
0.6
|
1.2
|
Ulardan: Iqtisodiy rivojlangan mamlakatlar
|
–650
|
–721
|
–721
|
–607
|
–0.8
|
–0.8
|
–0.8
|
–0.7
|
1.2
|
–1.4
|
–1.2
|
–0.6
|
Inqiroz global savdoning keskin pasayishi, tovarlarning arzonlashishi, tashqi moliyalashtirish shartlarining og'irligi va joriy operatsiyalar balanslari va valyutalar ta'sirining keskin o'zgarishi bilan kuchli zarba beradi. 2020 yil uchun to'lovlar balansi bo'yicha cheklangan ma'lumotlarga ega bo'lgan holda, tashqi sektor rivojlanishini qisman baholash mumkin va istiqbolni sezilarli noaniqlik o'rab oladi. Bundan tashqari, makroiqtisodiy asoslarning 2019 yilga nisbatan o'zgarishi nafaqat amaldagi hisob balanslari va real samarali valyuta kurslariga, balki ularning muvozanat qiymatlariga ham ta'sir qilishi mumkin. Masalan, tovar ayirboshlashning yomon ahvoliga tushgan muvozanat almashinuv kursi kelishi mumkin. Umuman olganda, 2020 yildagi haddan tashqari muvozanat yo'lini so'nggi voqealardan xulosa qilish mumkin emas.
2020 yilning dastlabki besh oyida tovarlar savdosining global hajmi 2019 yilga nisbatan taxminan 20 foizga past bo'ldi - bu global moliyaviy inqirozning dastlabki besh oyiga nisbatan keskin qisqarish. Xitoyning yaqinda savdo o'sishining qayta tiklanishi - bu qulflash siyosatining avvalgi oxirini aks ettiruvchi istisno (1.6-rasm). Umuman olganda, 2020 yil uchun tovar va xizmatlar savdosi hajmining 2020 yil iyunidagi Jahon iqtisodiy prognozi (WEO) prognozi taxminan 12 foizga qisqaradi. Tushgan mahsulot savdosi qisqarishining asosiy harakatlantiruvchisi bo'lib ko'rinadi. Savdo va YaIM tarkibiy qismlari o'rtasidagi tarixiy munosabatlar 2020 yilda ushbu YaIM tarkibiy qismlari bo'yicha prognozlarni hisobga olgan holda tovar va xizmatlar savdosining kutilayotgan global pasayishini to'liq tushuntiradi (1.3-ramka). Past iqtisodiy faoliyatning savdoga ta'sirining bir qismi global qiymat zanjirlari orqali uzatishni o'z ichiga oladi. Aksincha, global moliyaviy inqirozdan keyingi yillarda tovarlar va xizmatlar savdosi faqat iqtisodiy faollikning pasayishi bilan izohlanadigan darajada zaifroq bo'lib, qoldiq protektsionizmning o'sishi kabi qo'shimcha omillarning rolini aks ettirdi (2016 yil oktyabrga qarang) WEO). Xizmatlar savdosi uchun 2020 yilda kutilayotgan qisqarish yalpi talabning istiqbolli pasayishi asosida kutilganidan jiddiyroq bo'lib, sayohat cheklovlari kabi maxsus omillar uchun muhim rol o'ynaydi. Umuman olganda, savdo-sotiqdagi mavjud va istiqbolli zaiflik, birinchi navbatda, COVID-19 ta'sirini va u bilan bog'liq yumshatish choralarini, shuningdek ishlab chiqarishni to'xtatish oqibatlarini va yo'qotilgan ish o'rinlari va daromadlar bilan bog'liq talabning pasayishini aks ettiradi.
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