Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

2021 
2022 
2023 
Overall fiscal balance (% of GDP) 
-1.5 
1.0 
1.9 
3.6 
3.5 
2.2 
3.1 
2.9 
2.0 
2.4 
2.3 
Current account balance (% of GDP) 
-2.5 
11.7 
10.8 
7.3 
6.5 
11.5 
7.0 
6.4 
11.3 
6.5 
5.8 
Exports of goods & services (US$ bn) 
70.9 
73.8 
98.7 
99.0 
94.9 
100.3 
99.9 
95.6 
100.2 
99.8 
95.7 
Imports of goods & services (US$ bn) 
59.1 
44.9 
60.4 
64.2 
64.0 
60.3 
65.4 
64.6 
60.4 
66.1 
65.7 
Crude oil export Price ($/bbl) 
48.3 
64.2 
64.2 
64.1 
60.7 
65.4 
64.1 
60.7 
65.4 
64.1 
60.7 
Natural gas price ($/mmbtu*) Japan
6.5 
10.1 
10.1 
10.4 
9.7 
10.3 
10.4 
9.6 
10.3 
10.4 
9.6 
Source: PSA, *BTU=British Thermal Units. 

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Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
21 
Developments in Global 
Commodity Markets
Among the most important commodities 
traded in the global markets are non-
renewable energy sources, i.e. the fossil 
fuels petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Such 
sources are measured in different physical 
units and standards, including barrels, 
gallons, cubic feet, and long and short metric 
tons. But the British Thermal Unit (Btu) is 
used to standardize the measures as the so-
called Barrel of oil equivalent - beo, where 
each barrel of oil equals 5.8 million BTU as a 
measure of the thermal energy emanating 
from any of these sources. 
There are many factors that affect the prices 
of liquid fuels, but the most important of these 
are those related to both the supply and 
demand sides. In most cases, any increase 
in the supply of liquid fuels leads to lower 
prices, whereas decreases in supply lead to 
higher prices. Moreover, any increase in 
demand leads to higher prices, and the 
opposite occurs when demand decreases. It 
is worth noting that higher prices tend to 
moderate or reduce demand and encourage 
production, while lower prices tend to have 
the opposite effects. However, due to 
infrastructure constraints and limitations of 
liquid fuel supplies, whether crude oil or LNG, 
prices fluctuate rapidly for any of a number of 
emergencies, or even to respond to seasonal 
weather changes. This is attributed to limited 
energy alternatives to date, and the inability 
of consumers to make a quick switch, 
because it requires a diverse infrastructure, 
which is usually not equally available to all 
consumers. 
Thus, to avoid supply shocks, most countries 
have established an infrastructure to store 
surplus liquid fuel, which has become one of 
the main factors affecting fuel prices, as 
when the level of stockpile decreases, prices 
rise and vice versa.