Problem Solving



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Problem solving research

Problem Solving

Objectives

  • Learn how to state and clarify a problem
  • Develop a procedure for problem solving
  • Learn the traps
  • in problem solving

What’s typical?

  • Self-Doubt
  • Over Confidence
  • Procrastination
  • Flip-flops
  • Desperation!
  • WRONG!

Six Criteria for Effective Decisions

  • Focuses on what is important
  • Logical and consistent
  • Acknowledges objective and subjective factors, blends analytical and intuitive thinking
  • Does not gather too much information
  • Tries to reach consensus
  • Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible

Problem Solving Model

  • P
  • O A C T
  • roblem
  • bjectives
  • lternatives
  • onsequences
  • radeoffs

Additional Factors

  • Risk
  • Uncertainty
  • Linked decisions

Problem Solving Steps

  • State the problem carefully
    • Acknowledge complexities
    • Avoid assumptions and prejudices
  • Specify the objectives
  • Create imaginative alternatives
  • Understand the consequences of the alternative
  • Grapple with your tradeoffs………con’t

Problem Solving Steps, con’t

  • Clarify uncertainties
  • Think about your risk tolerance and the risks of each alternative
  • Consider linked decisions
    • Each alternative opens or closes future options
  • THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS
  • STAGE ONE
  • Define the Starting Issue(s)
  • Define the Problem
  • Analyze the Situation
  • Objectives:
  • 1. To analyze the facts.
  • 2. To define the problem
  • Understand the Issues
  • THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS
  • STAGE TWO
  • Generate Ideas
  • Make Decisions
  • Evaluate Ideas
  • Objectives:
  • 1. To generate ideas.
  • 2. To evaluate ideas.
  • 3. To decide on the best possible solution
  • Find Solutions
  • THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS
  • STAGE THREE
  • Analyze the Impact
  • Plan the Follow-through
  • Plan Your Action
  • Objectives:
  • 1. To determine the impact on people and systems.
  • 2. To build on action plan.
  • 3. To decide on follow-through.
  • Plan Your Action

What’s the best solution?

  • A good solution
  • to a well-posed
  • problem….
  • An excellent
  • solution to a
  • poorly posed
  • problem
  • Is a
  • almost
  • always
  • a smarter
  • choice
  • than..

Define the Problem

  • What triggers the problem?
  • State the problem
  • Question the constraints of the problem
  • statement
  • Identify the essential elements
  • How does this impact other decisions?
  • What is the scope of the problem?
  • Gain insights from others
  • Restate problem, if necessary

What Objectives Do

  • Help determine what information to seek
  • Explain your choices to others
  • Determine the importance of, time and effort devoted to the problem

How to identify objectives

  • Write down the concerns you hope to address:
    • Wish list
    • Worst possible outcome
    • Impact on others
    • Insights from others
    • What’s a good alternative but unfeasible?
    • What is bad about the worst alternatives?

How to identify objectives

  • Convert the concerns into succinct objectives
  • Separate the ends from the means
  • Clarify what you mean by each objective
  • Test your objectives

Alternatives

  • Use your objects and ask HOW?
  • Challenge constraints to your alternatives
  • Set high aspirations
  • Think through your alternatives before consulting others
  • Learn from past experience
  • Then ask others for suggestions

How to generate alternatives

  • Brainstorming
    • Just list alternatives, don’t evaluate
    • Never stop looking for alternatives
    • Look for win-win alternatives
  • Stop when you’ve thought through alternatives
  • One solution would satisfy you
  • But still have a range of alternatives

Consequences

  • List the consequences of each alternative
  • Assess the future consequences of each alternative
  • Create a free-form description of the consequences
  • Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives
  • Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives into a table …….

Consequences

  • Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences
  • Use qualitative and quantitative data
  • Use experts if necessary
  • Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of precision

Tradeoffs

  • Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others
  • Then swaps between alternatives using measures
  • Value incremental improvements
  • Make consistent tradeoffs

Uncertainties

  • What are the key uncertainties?
  • What are the possible outcomes of these uncertainties?
  • What are the changes of the outcomes, given these uncertainties?
  • What are the consequences of each outcome?….

Uncertainties

  • Identify the key uncertainties
  • Define the possible outcomes
  • Assign chance of occurrence of each outcome
  • Clarify consequences using quantitative and qualitative measures
  • Create a decision tree

Risk Tolerance

  • How much risk do you want to handle?
  • How much are others affected by your decision?
  • Quantify the risks, if possible
  • Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish optimism
  • Don’t avoid making risky decisions just because they are complex

How to lessen risk

  • Seek risk reducing information
  • Diversify the risk
  • Hedge the risk
  • Insure against the risk

Linked decisions

  • Choose options that leave future flexibility intact
  • Get timing right on decision tree
  • Describe the consequences at the end points

Psychological Traps

  • Working on the wrong problem
  • Failing to identify key objectives
  • Failing to develop a range of good, creative alternatives
  • Overlooking crucial consequences of your alternatives
  • Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs
  • Disregarding uncertainty…….

Traps, con’t

  • Failing to account for risk intolerance
  • Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked over time...
  • So, tell me some specifics on these traps...

Common Traps

  • Anchoring trap
  • Status Quo Trap
  • Sunk Cost Trap
  • Confirming Evidence Trap
  • Framing Trap
  • Overconfidence Trap
  • Recallability Trap
  • Base Rate Trap
  • Prudence Trap
  • Random Events

Review

  • A model for problem solving
  • The actions in each of the steps
  • Common Traps in problem solving
  • THANK YOU!

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