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Problem Solving
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Sana | 03.08.2021 | Hajmi | 1,18 Mb. | | #137307 |
| Bog'liq Problem solving research
Problem Solving Objectives What’s typical? Six Criteria for Effective Decisions - Focuses on what is important
- Logical and consistent
- Acknowledges objective and subjective factors, blends analytical and intuitive thinking
- Does not gather too much information
- Tries to reach consensus
- Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible
Problem Solving Model Additional Factors Problem Solving Steps - State the problem carefully
- Acknowledge complexities
- Avoid assumptions and prejudices
- Specify the objectives
- Create imaginative alternatives
- Understand the consequences of the alternative
- Grapple with your tradeoffs………con’t
Problem Solving Steps, con’t - THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS
- Define the Starting Issue(s)
- Objectives:
- 1. To analyze the facts.
- 2. To define the problem
- THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS
- Objectives:
- 1. To generate ideas.
- 2. To evaluate ideas.
- 3. To decide on the best possible solution
- THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS
- Objectives:
- 1. To determine the impact on people and systems.
- 2. To build on action plan.
- 3. To decide on follow-through.
What’s the best solution? - A good solution
- to a well-posed
- problem….
- An excellent
- solution to a
- poorly posed
- problem
- Is a
- almost
- always
- a smarter
- choice
- than..
Define the Problem - What triggers the problem?
- State the problem
- Question the constraints of the problem
- statement
- Identify the essential elements
- How does this impact other decisions?
- What is the scope of the problem?
- Gain insights from others
- Restate problem, if necessary
What Objectives Do - Help determine what information to seek
- Explain your choices to others
- Determine the importance of, time and effort devoted to the problem
How to identify objectives - Write down the concerns you hope to address:
- Wish list
- Worst possible outcome
- Impact on others
- Insights from others
- What’s a good alternative but unfeasible?
- What is bad about the worst alternatives?
How to identify objectives - Convert the concerns into succinct objectives
- Separate the ends from the means
- Clarify what you mean by each objective
- Test your objectives
Alternatives - Use your objects and ask HOW?
- Challenge constraints to your alternatives
- Set high aspirations
- Think through your alternatives before consulting others
- Learn from past experience
- Then ask others for suggestions
How to generate alternatives - Brainstorming
- Just list alternatives, don’t evaluate
- Never stop looking for alternatives
- Look for win-win alternatives
- Stop when you’ve thought through alternatives
- One solution would satisfy you
- But still have a range of alternatives
Consequences - List the consequences of each alternative
- Assess the future consequences of each alternative
- Create a free-form description of the consequences
- Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives
- Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives into a table …….
Consequences - Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences
- Use qualitative and quantitative data
- Use experts if necessary
- Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of precision
Tradeoffs - Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others
- Then swaps between alternatives using measures
- Value incremental improvements
- Make consistent tradeoffs
Uncertainties - What are the key uncertainties?
- What are the possible outcomes of these uncertainties?
- What are the changes of the outcomes, given these uncertainties?
- What are the consequences of each outcome?….
Uncertainties - Identify the key uncertainties
- Define the possible outcomes
- Assign chance of occurrence of each outcome
- Clarify consequences using quantitative and qualitative measures
- Create a decision tree
Risk Tolerance - How much risk do you want to handle?
- How much are others affected by your decision?
- Quantify the risks, if possible
- Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish optimism
- Don’t avoid making risky decisions just because they are complex
How to lessen risk - Seek risk reducing information
- Diversify the risk
- Hedge the risk
- Insure against the risk
Linked decisions - Choose options that leave future flexibility intact
- Get timing right on decision tree
- Describe the consequences at the end points
Psychological Traps - Working on the wrong problem
- Failing to identify key objectives
- Failing to develop a range of good, creative alternatives
- Overlooking crucial consequences of your alternatives
- Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs
- Disregarding uncertainty…….
Traps, con’t - Failing to account for risk intolerance
- Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked over time...
- So, tell me some specifics on these traps...
Common Traps - Anchoring trap
- Status Quo Trap
- Sunk Cost Trap
- Confirming Evidence Trap
- Framing Trap
- Overconfidence Trap
- Recallability Trap
- Base Rate Trap
- Prudence Trap
- Random Events
Review - A model for problem solving
- The actions in each of the steps
- Common Traps in problem solving
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