Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
17 
1%, and consequently, the rate of change in 
government final consumption for 2021 is 
expected to maintain its positive growth rates 
from 4.4% in 2020, to positive 1.2% for the 
base scenario, then to positive 1.6% for the 
middle scenario, and then to positive 2% for 
the optimistic scenario. Subsequently, in the 
World Cup year of 2022, it is expected to 
undergo a significant growth rate for the three 
scenarios, ranging between ranging between 
6.3% and 7.7%, before declining somewhat 
in 2023 to achieve moderate growth rates in 
2023, ranging between 2.9% and 4.1%. 
In regard to the annual rate of change of fixed 
capital formation, it is expected that it will 
continue to achieve positive growth rates for 
all three scenarios during the period 2021-
2022, and then stabilize in 2023, as indicated 
in Table (1-5), resulting from increased 
investments in the construction of North Field 
gas, and the expansions of Hamad 
International Airport and Hamad Port, as well 
as the completion of basic infrastructure.
However, it is worth noting, as was clarified 
in Box (1-3), that the rate of change of capital 
formation includes the arithmetic differences 
between two GDPs, one calculated by the 
method of production and the other by the 
expenditure method; this requires being 
careful and cautious when considering or 
using such indicators. 
In conclusion, the initial expectations for the 
level of performance of the fixed capital 
components indicate that the rate of change 
will increase in 2021 from negative 10.4% in 
2020 to positive growth rates for the three 
scenarios, ranging between 5.3% and 5.8% 
for the year 2021, with subsequent
significant growth expected for 2022, ranging 
between 6.3% and 9.2%, before then 
declining in 2023, with a range between 
negative 0.1% and 0.6%. 
When deliberating over imports, it is 
assumed that they are to witness significant 
growth in 2021 and 2022 before tamping 
down and undergoing a decline to stabilize in 
2023, driven by meeting the requirements of 
the increase in final consumption expenditure 
of government and capital formation activities 
during the same two years. Concomitantly, 
exports are subject to the level of production 
and demand for oil derivatives in line with the 
growth rate of oil GVA. 

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