Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

 
Assumptions and Forecast of 
Hydrocarbon Gross Value Added
Given the gradual decline in the production of 
crude oil and LNG in Qatar since 2014, as a 
result of a number of oil and gas fields 
reaching their maximum production capacity, 
therefore, it is reasonable to assume for basic 
scenario that the performance level of 
hydrocarbon production in the short term will 
be stable or slightly decreasing, both for 
technical 
reasons 
during 
routine 
maintenance periods, as well as for reasons 
related to the response to global forces of 
supply and demand that are subject to 
unpredictable and uncertain factors, the most 
important of which depend on how quickly the 
precautionary and preventive restrictions of 
COVID-19 and mutations are lifted and thus 
restoring production and service activities 
around the world.
As for the Gross Value Added (GVA) of the 
products of hydrocarbon activities, of course, 
it depends on the stability of global oil and 
gas prices, which, as shown by the latest 
forecasts of the International Monetary Fund 
issued in October 2021, ranged between 
($61 - $65.7 per barrel) during the period 
(2021-2023), Although it averaged higher 
than this at around $68.7 per barrel during 
the period January-November of 2021, with a 
maximum of $82 per barrel in October 2021. 
And based on the latest GDP data for the 
value added of the hydrocarbon sector for the 
first three quarters of 2021, which showed 
that the activities of the hydrocarbon sector 
improved by 51% from negative 1.6% during 
the first three quarters of 2020 to negative 
0.8% during the same period in 2021. And 
since Bloomberg’s data for LNG exports 
showed that Qatar’s exports witnessed an 
average growth of 5.8% during the months of 
October and November of 2021, therefore, it 
is likely that the annual rate of change of the 
hydrocarbon sector will decline in 2021 by 
about negative 0.7%, or stabilize at an 
average of negative 0.2% for the three 
scenarios, as shown in Table (1-4). As for 
the forecast for the period (2022-2023), it was 
assumed that it will decrease in the base 
scenario to negative 0.3%, or it will stabilize 
in the medium and optimistic scenario.