Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

partially contributed to balancing the negative 
contribution of other activities including 
government services and building and 
construction. 
Forecast of the Main activities of 
the Non-Hydrocarbon Sector
 
On this basis, to estimate GDP for 2021, a set 
of performance assumptions was applied for 
the fourth quarter of 2021, the preliminary 
results of which demonstrate that non-
hydrocarbon activities would grow in the base 
scenario case from negative 4.5% in 2020 to 
positive 2.9% in 2021, with a recovery rate of 
165%, while recovering further to 3.3% when 
applying the assumptions related to the 
medium scenario, and when applying the 
assumptions related to the optimistic 
scenario, it will increase to 3.9%. 
For the expectations of the level of 
performance of non-hydrocarbon activities 
during the years (2022 and 2023), for each of 
the three scenarios depended on 
assumptions related primarily to the activities 
of the service sector, with the hope that the 
national economy would reap a number of 
benefits in the field of employment, increase 
in value added, and rises in productivity, as a 
benefit of hosting 2022 FIFA World Cup 
together with the subsequent anticipated 
advancements in the tourism sector, which in 
combination will serve to attract foreign 
investments, especially after the Al-Ula 
agreement (to be discussed later). 

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Qatar Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
14 
In the short term, it appears that the activities 
of the construction sector will constitute the 
second source of growth in non-hydrocarbon 
activities, given that the construction of the 
North Gas Field project will begin gradually in 
2021, and then expand further during 2022 
and 2023, which will involve multiple activities 
including in the areas of manufacturing and 
transportation. 
In addition, the construction sector can be 
expected to continue to grow due to the 
necessity of completing infrastructure 
projects. Moreover, it can be anticipated that 
there will be increasing private sector 
investments in all fields in response to 
reforms in the business and investment 
environments, which will assuredly require 
construction related to various aspects of 
these investments. 
For more detail, the forecasts of the main 
sectors for non-hydrocarbon activities can be 
summarized as follows: