Strategy for agricultural transformation in africa

Figure 1: Agricultural prices have been less volatile than natural resources over the past 
decade


6
 AGRA, ‘Africa Agriculture Status Report,’ 2013.
7
AfDB, 2015-2019 Draft Agriculture & Agribusiness Strategy
8
Word Bank Databank, Agriculture and Rural Development, 2015
9
 AfDB, ‘Africa’s agricultural productivity is the lowest in the world.’
10
 The Economist, ‘The twilight of the resource curse?’ January 2015.

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1.3
 
The lack of productivity of African agriculture exacts a high human and economic 
cost. 
High rates of poverty prevail, especially in major agro-ecological zones such as the Sub-
Humid “Guinea Savannah” and Semi-Arid “Sahel” regions where more than 50% of people 
live on less than US$1.25 a day; more than 232m people are under-nourished in Africa
11
. Low 
productivity also makes African agriculture an uncompetitive sector; around a third of all 
calories consumed in Africa are imported,
12
resulting in a negative net agricultural trade 
balance of US$35bn per year in 2015. Agribusiness activities outside of farming account for 
78% of total value added in all agricultural value chains globally,
13
yet this figure falls to 
approximately 38% in Africa.
14
In the case of cocoa, Africa exports 69% of the world’s raw 
cocoa beans, but only 16% of ground cocoa, which is typically worth 2-3 times more per ton 
than raw cocoa.
1.4 
Notwithstanding the expected rise in rural populations as well, 
urbanization is 
driving an increased demand for high-value food products that are not currently being 
supplied in sufficient quantity and quality by African farmers.
The urban population in 
Africa has increased by a factor of 12 since 1960
15
with the percentage of the population living 
in urban areas approaching 40%. When Africans move to cities, their consumption patterns 
change as they are exposed to higher quality, often imported, food – specifically premium 
cereals, dairy, poultry, beef and vegetables. For example, Africans living in cities consume 
70% premium rice, whereas rural Africans eat mostly standard rice. The share of Africans 
living in urban areas is projected to increase to almost half by 2025; and 70% by 2050. Unless 
African production adapts to changing consumption patterns, further urbanization will put 
pressure on the import of products that are either not produced in Africa or produced in 
insufficient volume to meet demand.
11
 FAO, IFAD and WFP. 2015. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015. Meeting the 2015 international 
hunger targets: taking stock of uneven progress
12
 AfDB, ‘Feeding Africa: An Action Plan for African Agricultural Transformation Report of Work Stream 
Sessions,’ 2015.
13
 World Bank, ‘Growing Africa: Unlocking the Potential of Agribusiness’, January 2013.
14
 The ratio of agribusiness value add to farming output is only 0.6x in Africa compared to 13x in the United 
States. 
15
The World Bank ‘Structural transformation and rural change revisited,’ Losch et. al., 2012.

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