Global outlook c h a p t e r 1

A. EMDE potential growth
B. Prevalence of mask use
C. Access to digital technologies
D. Average annual gap between 
projected infrastructure spending and 
needs, 2016-30
E. Cumulative response of long-term 
growth forecasts after institutional-
reform advances and setbacks
F. Debt transparency across EMDE 
regions

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C H A P T E R 1 
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chronic malnutrition, which can permanently 
impair maternal and child health and learning 
abilities (Martins et al. 2011; WFP 2020b). The 
international community can play a key role in 
supporting efforts to alleviate food insecurity. For 
instance, 
the 
International 
Development 
Association (IDA) is committing $5.3 billion for 
food security (IDA 2020). Moreover, equitable 
access to health care—especially for vulnerable 
households with reduced income—needs to be 
prioritized. 
Safeguarding access to education is critical in 
promoting better long-run growth outcomes 
(chapter 3; Sala-i-Martin, Doppelhofer, and Miller 
2004). Increased investment in infrastructure 
related to education can improve the quantity and 
quality of human capital (Francisco and Tanaka 
2020; Barrett et al. 2019). Digital approaches to 
remote learning developed during the pandemic 
can also be leveraged to gradually broaden access 
to affordable education across EMDEs over the 
long term (Li and Lalani 2020). 
Boosting public investment in digital and green 
infrastructure
In the short term, authorities can spur the 
accelerated adoption and development of fintech 
platforms that enhance the delivery of secure cash 
payments to a broader group of vulnerable 
households, which can also help alleviate the sharp 
rise in inequality (Davidovic et al. 2020; 
Gévaudan and Lederman 2020). Once the 
pandemic is contained, funding an expansion of 
broadband and mobile internet access would 
enable a larger share of the population to access 
digital services (figure 1.23.C). In addition to its 
productivity-enhancing effects, wider internet 
access has been found to increase female labor 
force participation (Viollaz and Winkler 2020). At 
the same time, policies that promote a secure 
online environment and deepen access to data, 
combined with an easing of regulatory barriers to 
market entry, can help grow a vibrant domestic 
information and communications technology 
sector (World Bank 2020o).
Addressing gaps between current spending on 
infrastructure and the level needed to meet 
Sustainable Development Goals can contribute to 
a sustained rise in per capita incomes (figure 
1.23.D; chapter 3; Canning and Pedroni 2008). 
Prioritizing investment in green infrastructure 
projects with high economic returns, and fostering 
the widespread adoption of environmentally-
sustainable technologies, can also support higher 
growth levels in the long-run while contributing 
to climate change mitigation (OECD 2020b; 
Strand and Toman 2010). Building green 
objectives into recovery packages will increase 
EMDE’s resilience to future shocks as well as 
reduce risks. Green stimulus packages, including 
efforts to improve energy efficiency such as 
retrofitting buildings, can have large fiscal 
multipliers as they are both labor intensive and 
productivity enhancing (Agrawala, Dussaux, and 
Monti 2020; IEA 2020).
Nonetheless, 
the 
social 
and 
economic 
consequences of green policies need to be carefully 
managed—particularly job losses in traditional 
energy industries. Governments can work with the 
private 
sector, 
leveraging 
public-private