Summary
COVID-19 caused a global recession whose depth
was surpassed only by the two World Wars and
the Great Depression over the past century and a
half. Although global economic activity is growing
again, it is not likely to return to business as usual
for the foreseeable future. The pandemic has
caused a severe loss of life, is tipping millions into
extreme poverty, and is expected to inflict lasting
scars that push activity and income well below
their pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged period.
The incipient recovery was initially supported by a
partial easing of stringent lockdowns. Various
restrictive measures have been reintroduced,
however, as COVID-19 has continued to spread
around the world. Some areas have experienced a
sharp resurgence of infections, and daily new cases
remain high (figure 1.1.A). That said, there has
been substantial progress in the development of
effective vaccines, and inoculation has begun in
some countries. A more general rollout in
advanced economies and major emerging market
and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected
to proceed early this year. Most other EMDEs,
however, face greater constraints in vaccine
procurement and distribution. Until vaccines are
widely distributed, effective containment strategies
to limit the spread of COVID-19 remain critical.
Following the initial rebound in mid-2020, the
global economic recovery has slowed (figure
1.1.B). Whereas activity and trade in the goods
sector have improved, the services sector remains
anemic, with international tourism, in particular,
still depressed. The fall in global investment has
been pronounced, particularly for EMDEs
excluding China (figure 1.1.C). Even though
financial conditions remain very loose, reflecting
exceptional monetary policy accommodation,
underlying financial fragilities are mounting. Most
commodity prices rebounded from their mid-
2020 lows as strict lockdowns were gradually lifted
and demand firmed, especially from China;
however, the recovery in oil prices was more
modest amid concerns over the pandemic’s lasting
impact on oil demand.
In all, the global economy is estimated to have
contracted 4.3 percent in 2020—a 0.9 percentage
point smaller collapse than was expected in June
forecasts (figure 1.1.D). In advanced economies,
the initial contraction was less severe than
anticipated, but the ensuing recovery has been
dampened by a substantial resurgence of COVID-
19 cases. Meanwhile, output in China is estimated
Note: This chapter was prepared by Carlos Arteta, Justin-
Damien Guénette, Patrick Kirby, and Collette Mari Wheeler, with
contributions from Rudi Steinbach, John Baffes, Osamu Inami,
Sergiy Kasyanenko, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Peter Nagle, Cedric
Okou, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Ekaterine Vashakmadze. Research
assistance was provided by Damien M. V. Boucher, Hrisyana
Doytchinova, Fuda Jiang, Maria Hazel Macadangdang, Julia
Roseman Norfleet, Ipek Ceylan Oymak, Vasiliki Papagianni, Shijie
Shi, Kaltrina Temaj, Jinxin Wu, and Juncheng Zhou.
C H A P T E R 1
G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S | J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 1
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |