Global outlook c h a p t e r 1


FIGURE 1.2  Global risks and policy challenges



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FIGURE 1.2 
Global risks and policy challenges 
The pandemic is tipping millions back into poverty and reversing earlier 
per capita income gains. Downside risks to the growth outlook 
predominate, and the uncertain evolution of the pandemic, influenced in 
part by vaccine-related developments, suggests that various growth 
scenarios are possible. Even after the crisis subsides, the long-term 
damage caused by the pandemic is expected to weaken potential growth. 
Many countries have provided exceptional levels of fiscal support, which 
are expected to be withdrawn amid sharply higher debt levels. In the 
longer run, a concerted push toward productivity-enhancing structural 
reforms will be required to offset the pandemic’s scarring effects.
Sources: 
Consensus Economics; International Crisis Risk Group (database); International Monetary 
Fund; Kilic Celik, Kose, and Ohnsorge (2020); World Bank. 
Note: 
EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies; LICs = low-income countries. 
A.-C. Aggregates calculated using U.S. dollar GDP per capita at 2010 prices and market exchange 
rates. 
A. Figure shows percentage of EMDEs by number of years of lost per capita income gains. 
B.D. Shaded areas indicate forecasts. 
B.
Black vertical lines are the lower and upper bounds of growth in the scenarios described in box 1.4.
C.
Potential growth based on production function estimates. Shaded area indicates pre-COVID 
baseline. Sample includes 30 advanced economies and 50 EMDEs. 
D.
Fiscal impulse defined as change in the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB) from previous
year. Decline in the CAPB indicates fiscal consolidation; increase in the CAPB indicates fiscal 
expansion. Sample includes 61 economies. 
E.
Aggregates calculated using current GDP in U.S. dollars as weights. Data for 2020 are estimates. 
F.
Coefficients of a local projection estimation of 10-year-ahead growth forecasts on reform 
advances
and setbacks in 57 countries during 1990-2020. For more details, see chapter 3. 
Click here to download charts and data.

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