Industry Agenda Electric Vehicles for

Figure 8: Shifting from the proliferation to transformation approach 
could quadruple the value generated in the US by 2030 
•
Transformation leads to an increase 
in the share of miles driven by EVs, 
quadrupling the potential value by 
2030 through a push for fleet and 
mobility-as-a-service electrification as 
well as new forms of mobility (AV)
•
Sizeable value from generation 
capacity and ancillary services 
savings, most coming from smart 
charging and reduction in curtailment 
•
Most value for society coming from 
mobility savings 
Potential value of the transformation 
($ bn, US, 2030) 
Transformation additional value 
Proliferation 
~x4 
Note: Assuming all AV are EV; calculation methodology in Appendix d; rounded numbers
Source: Bain analysis 
Note to Design Team
: Graph title + footnote only. Current design with the legend at the top is fine.
• Transformation leads to an increase 
in the share of miles driven by EVs, 
quadrupling the potential value by 
2030 through a push for fleet and 
mobility-as-a-service electrification 
as well as new forms of mobility
• Sizeable value from generation 
capacity and ancillary services 
savings, most coming from 
smart charging and reduction in 
curtailment of renewables
• Most value for society coming from 
mobility savings, such as decreased 
cost per mile

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13
Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and Mobility
Proliferation vs transformation
– 
projection of electric miles in the US
In the US, the transformation would electrify around 35% of vehicle miles travelled by 2030, even while the vehicle 
stock would remain about 85% ICE. This is compared to less than 10% of miles being electrified if public policies 
keep focusing on traditional ownership models by prioritizing personal-use EVs.
EVs for cleaner mobility
In the US, 1,100 trillion tons of CO
2
were generated by 
LDVs in 2016, costing $470 billion in lost wages and 
healthcare costs.
2
Based on the US energy mix for 
electricity generation, EVs currently release around 140 
grams of CO
2
per mile compared to 330 grams per mile 
for an ICE, a 60%.
•