Module 23
Thinking and Reasoning
249
The
availability heuristic involves judging the probability of an event on the basis
of how easily the event can be recalled from memory. According
to this heuristic, we
assume that events we remember easily are likely to have occurred more frequently
in the past—and are more likely to occur in the future—than events that are harder
to remember.
For instance, the availability heuristic makes us more afraid of dying in a plane
crash than in an auto accident, despite statistics clearly showing that airplane travel
is much safer than auto travel.
Similarly, although 10 times as many people die from
falling out of bed than from lightning strikes, we’re more afraid of being hit by
lightning. The reason is that plane crashes and lightning strikes receive far more
publicity, and they are therefore more easily remembered (Oppenheimer, 2004; Fox,
2006; Kluger, 2006; Caruso, 2008).
Are algorithms and heuristics confi ned to human thinking, or can we program
computers to mimic human thinking and problem solving? As
we discuss next, sci-
entists are certainly trying.
Computers and Problem
Solving: Searching for
Artifi cial Intelligence
To the music experts, there was no mistaking who had written the piano piece:
Johann Sebastian Bach, the prolifi c German composer who was born in the 15th
century.
But the experts were wrong. The piece they all thought was a Bach composition
was actually created by a computer named “EMI” by David Cope of the University
of California. After a variety of actual Bach pieces had
been scanned into its memory,
EMI was able to produce music that was so similar to Bach’s actual music that it
fooled knowledgeable listeners (Johnson, 1997; Cope, 2001).
Such computer mimicry is possible because composers have a particular “signa-
ture” that refl ects patterns, sequences, and combinations of notes. By employing
those “signatures,” computers can create compositions that have the full scope and
emotional appeal of actual works—and show just as much creativity as those written
by the actual composer (Cope, 2001, 2003).
Computers are making signifi cant inroads in terms of
the ability to solve prob-
lems and carry out some forms of intellectual activities. According to experts who
study
artifi cial intelligence, the fi eld that examines how to use technology to imitate
the outcome of human thinking, problem solving, and creative activities,
computers
can show rudiments of humanlike thinking because of their knowledge of where to
look—and where not to look—for an answer to a problem. They suggest that the
capacity of computer programs (such as those that play chess) to evaluate potential
moves and to ignore unimportant possibilities gives them thinking ability (Sabater
& Sierra, 2005; Prasad, 2006; Copeland & Proudfoot, 2007).
Many of the questions surrounding the ability of computers to think and behave
creatively have not been answered. Still, it is clear that computers are becoming
increasingly
sophisticated, ever more closely approximating human thought
processes.
A computer using artifi cial intelligence
software was able to mimic compositions
by Johann Sebastian Bach so successfully
it fooled expert musicologists.
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