3.1. Read the text
Desktop Linux: Why You Shouldn't Care
By Preston Gralla
Computerworld May 18, 2009
Recently, the Web site analytics company Net Applications came out with figures that showed that in April, the
percentage of "client devices" used to
surf
the Web that were run-ning Linux crossed the 1% level for the first time
ever -- 1.02%, to be exact. The firm enthusias-tically noted that "Linux has reached this important
milestone
on the
client as Linux-based systems have become more functional, easier to use, and
pre-installed
on computers from
vendors like Dell."
On the Web, you'd think manna had fallen from heaven. Linux backers touted the
1%
breakthrough
and
prognosticated
that Linux could eventually reach 20% market share.
My response: Not in this lifetime. And in any event, you simply shouldn't care about Linux on the desktop.
Let's start off with why Linux will never become an important desktop or
notebook
oper-
ating
system. Linux has been
around since 1991 -- a full 18 years -- and is available for free. Given that, the recent "
milestone
" of 1% market
share doesn't seem so im-pressive.
In addition, if you do some digging in the Net Applications numbers, you'll see that from August to March, Linux use
was largely flat. Last August, Linux's market share stood at 0.93% and then gradually declined before picking up
again and reaching that 1.02%
apex
in April. So it's not as if Linux is on a skyrocket trajectory.
There's also some evidence that Linux market share won't likely ever get much higher than 1%, and certainly not
more than 5%. The primary reason for the growth of Linux is the growing use of
netbooks
-- inexpensive devices
used primarily to
surf
the Web and send and receive e-mail. When
netbooks
were first sold, Linux was the desktop
operating system on about 30% of them.
Netbooks
have been the fastest-growing segment of the PC market, which
is why Linux finally broke the 1%
barrier
.
But Linux isn't faring so well on
netbooks
these days.
Analyst
firm NPD Group found that, by the beginning of this
year, only 10% of all
netbooks
sold had Linux on them, and that number is likely shrinking. And Windows 7 will run
on
netbooks
-- something that Vista doesn't do -- which means that Linux market share will drop even further when
Microsoft launches a big Windows 7 marketing campaign.
How about Linux on desktop or
notebook
PCs
? If you hunt hard enough, you'll be able to buy some from Dell. But
apart from that, good luck. You might as well go on a snipe hunt.
Desktop Linux will simply never be popular enough for most people to care about. One big rea-son is the difficulty of
upgrading and installing software. It's true that using the operating system itself is simple and straightforward --
much easier than it was in the days when you had to be a command-line junkie to get anything done with Linux.
But when you try to install new software, or upgrade existing software, you'll be in for
trouble
. I won't get down and
dirty with the details here, but believe me, it's not pretty.
Beyond that, there is no single version of Linux, and so by definition, using it becomes a non-standard experience.
How many versions are there? I'm not sure anyone really knows. But these are just a few variants: Gentoo, Debian,
Knoppix, Mandriva, SUSE, Red Hat, Xandros, Ubuntu, Slackware -- and the list goes on.
The upshot? As a desktop operating system, Linux isn't important enough to think about. For servers, it's top-notch,
but you likely won't use it on your desktop -- even though it did finally manage to
crack
the 1%
barrier
after 18
years.
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