How bad could it get? America’s ugly election

Slow reveal

United States, predicted electoral-college 

votes in 2020 presidential election

Source:

The Economist’s

election-forecasting model

*Assumptions

described in text

3

70%

80%

90%+

CO

FL

NC

PA

270 to win

234

304

307

231

334

204

Joe

Biden

Donald

Trump

By share of postal votes counted*

AZ

MI

---

The Economist

September 5th 2020

19

1

“I

thought boris

had a bit more author-

ity about him,” says Rob Westley, a

teacher. Mr Westley voted Conservative for

the first time in the election last December

but now he’s unsure who he would go for.

The prime minister, he reckons, was too

slow to respond to the coronavirus pan-

demic, and the exam-results mess created

misery for his students. “He fluffed it,” he

says. Leanne Rooney, a waitress, also voted

Conservative for the first time last year, and

is also having second thoughts. “I did like

Boris’s ideas, but now I question his leader-

ship,” she says. “He has been so flippant,

and you can’t have that in a pandemic.” 

Barnard Castle, in northern England,

does not yet feature much in the great his-

tories of the Conservative Party, but it will

be prominent in the chronicles of the John-

son administration. It contributed to Mr

Johnson’s greatest victory last December,

as the constituency of Bishop Auckland

elected 26-year-old Dehenna Davison as its

first Conservative 

mp

in a wave that unseat-

ed Labour from former mining and mill

towns. It was also the scene of an infamous

blunder, when his chief aide Dominic

Cummings made a day trip to the town

with his family during the long coronavi-

rus lockdown. 

Poor management of the pandemic fol-

lowed by series of 

u

-turns has damaged the

government. It had insisted the algorith-

mically-set exam results were robust and

dependable, but scrapped them after an

outcry. It has changed its mind on whether

face masks should be worn in shops and

schools, months after they became com-

monplace elsewhere. The government has

switched policy on providing free chil-

dren’s meals during the school holidays,

whether foreign 

nhs 

employees should

pay a health-care levy, and when a morato-

rium on evictions should be lifted. The

test-and-trace system to control the virus

took months to work. “We’ve had more un-

forced errors this summer than I’ve seen in

30 years,” says an exasperated Tory.

Conservative 

mp

s, who returned from

their summer breaks on September 1st,

blame an over-centralised Downing Street,

an over-reliance on focus groups and a

weak cabinet which lacks the confidence or

foresight to predict problems. “We’ve got to

stop talking about ‘world beating’,” says

Charles Walker, a Tory 

mp

, who likens Mr

Johnson to a star football striker let down

by a poor team. “What we need is ‘effec-

tive’—just workmanlike success.” 

The Tory unease was fuelled by a poll on

August 29th which found the Conserva-

tives and Labour on 40% each, the first

time the Conservatives had not been in

front since July 2019. That was a fall from a

peak of 55% in April. Yet this figure reflect-

ed a “rally round the flag” effect often

found in democracies at times of crisis,

which invariably subsides. 

A better benchmark is the Tory result of

44% secured in the election in 2019. Ex-

cluding those like Mr Westley who are un-

decided, polls conducted in August found

the Tories averaging 42% to Labour’s 37%.

“The Tories have been in power for a de-

cade, and for the opposition to still be be-

hind at that point is extraordinary,” says 

Boris Johnson