The phase of increase in crisis phenomena arises because of an initial shock
(usually external). The main problem of enterprises in this period is the lack of
working capital, which disrupts economic relations and reduces demand from
business structures, but consumer demand does not decrease significantly. The
main efforts of state influence on the economy during this period are directed at
solving specific problems, such as preventing bankruptcies of systemically
important enterprises, improving lending conditions, and supporting the
financial and credit system. The correct assessment of the scale of the external
shock is extremely important, while government resources must be
commensurate with the scale of the crisis.
During the active phase, the negative impact of the crisis spreads to the
entire economy, and social tension grows. As a result of lower costs and reduced
inefficient costs, investment plans are being revised. The main negative result of
this phase is the increase in unemployment, which is why the main attention of
the state should be directed to reducing social tension. At the same stage, the
lowest point of decline in industrial production is reached.
In the stabilization phase, the business adapts to functioning in the new
economic conditions, there is a need for the procurement of intermediate
products for new production volumes, and conditions for financial stabilization
arise. This phase is key in the sense that it determines the trajectory of further
development. During this period, government actions should be aimed at
supporting final demand, since the growth of sectors where intermediate
products are produced is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in final
consumption, which causes a second wave of crisis. The key problem of this
phase is the achievement of financial stabilization in the banking and foreign
exchange sectors.
In the final phase of recovery growth, high rates of post-crisis recovery of
industry are noted. Improving production efficiency creates benefits for
enterprises that they successfully implement. The basis is being created for
economic growth and import substitution due to the stable exchange rate of the
national currency and stabilization of the banking sector. Business and
population incomes are growing. The state is called upon to ensure steady,
uniform growth, assistance to sectors of the economy that have not received
significant competitive advantages in the new economic conditions. The overall
degree of state intervention in the economy during this period is gradually
decreasing.
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