Nargiza kasimova farkhod mukhamedov elkan harebov

 
Figure 8. Phases of the economic cycle and their main features 
 
 
 
• Reduced demand for 
intermediate products 
• Reduction of all 
types of costs of 
manufacturers 
• Growth in non-
payments 
• Lack of working 
capital in enterprises 
• Capital outflow 
 
 
 
• Reduced inventories 
by producers and 
consumers 
• Restructuring 
mechanisms and 
increasing the 
efficiency of business 
• Revaluation of the 
national currency 
• Unemployment rise 
 
 
 
• Growth in 
intermediate 
consumption 
• Decrease in real 
incomes of the 
population 
• Financial and 
currency stabilization 
 
 
 
 
 
• Final demand growth 
• Import substitution 
• Increase in 
population income 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Phase 1 
Crisis growth 
 
Phase 2 
Active phase 
 
Phase 3 
Stabilization 
 
Phase 4 
Recovery growth 
 
 
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The phase of increase in crisis phenomena arises because of an initial shock 
(usually external). The main problem of enterprises in this period is the lack of 
working capital, which disrupts economic relations and reduces demand from 
business structures, but consumer demand does not decrease significantly. The 
main efforts of state influence on the economy during this period are directed at 
solving specific problems, such as preventing bankruptcies of systemically 
important enterprises, improving lending conditions, and supporting the 
financial and credit system. The correct assessment of the scale of the external 
shock is extremely important, while government resources must be 
commensurate with the scale of the crisis. 
During the active phase, the negative impact of the crisis spreads to the 
entire economy, and social tension grows. As a result of lower costs and reduced 
inefficient costs, investment plans are being revised. The main negative result of 
this phase is the increase in unemployment, which is why the main attention of 
the state should be directed to reducing social tension. At the same stage, the 
lowest point of decline in industrial production is reached. 
In the stabilization phase, the business adapts to functioning in the new 
economic conditions, there is a need for the procurement of intermediate 
products for new production volumes, and conditions for financial stabilization 
arise. This phase is key in the sense that it determines the trajectory of further 
development. During this period, government actions should be aimed at 
supporting final demand, since the growth of sectors where intermediate 
products are produced is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in final 
consumption, which causes a second wave of crisis. The key problem of this 
phase is the achievement of financial stabilization in the banking and foreign 
exchange sectors. 
In the final phase of recovery growth, high rates of post-crisis recovery of 
industry are noted. Improving production efficiency creates benefits for 
enterprises that they successfully implement. The basis is being created for 
economic growth and import substitution due to the stable exchange rate of the 
national currency and stabilization of the banking sector. Business and 
population incomes are growing. The state is called upon to ensure steady, 
uniform growth, assistance to sectors of the economy that have not received 
significant competitive advantages in the new economic conditions. The overall 
degree of state intervention in the economy during this period is gradually 
decreasing.