Microsoft Word Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity Is Near doc



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Kurzweil, Ray - Singularity Is Near, The (hardback ed) [v1.3]

 
The Nature of Order.
The previous chapter featured several graphs demonstrating the acceleration of paradigm shift. 
(Paradigm shifts are major changes in methods and intellectual processes to accomplish tasks; examples include 
written language and the computer.) The graphs plotted what fifteen thinkers and reference works regarded as the key 
events in biological and technological evolution from the Big Bang to the Internet. We see some expected variation, 
but an unmistakable exponential trend: key events have been occurring at an ever-hastening pace. 
The criteria for what constituted "key events" varied from one thinker's list to another. But it's worth considering 
the principles they used in making their selections. Some observers have judged that the truly epochal advances in the 
history of biology and technology have involved increases in complexity.
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Although increased complexity does appear 



to follow advances in both biological and technological evolution, I believe that this observation is not precisely 
correct. But let's first examine what complexity means. 
Not surprisingly, the concept of complexity is complex. One concept of complexity is the minimum amount of 
information required to represent a process. Let's say you have a design for a system (for example, a computer 
program or a computer-assisted design file for a computer), which can be described by a data file containing one 
million bits. We could say your design has a complexity of one million bits. But suppose we notice that the one million 
bits actually consist of a pattern of one thousand bits that is repeated one thousand times. We could note the 
repetitions, remove the repeated patterns, and express the entire design in just over one thousand bits, thereby reducing 
the size of the file by a factor of about one thousand. 
The most popular data-compression techniques use similar methods of finding redundancy within information.
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But after you've compressed a data file in this way, can you be absolutely certain that there are no other rules or 
methods that might be discovered that would enable you to express the file in even more compact terms? For example, 
suppose my file was simply "pi" (3.1415...) expressed to one million bits of precision. Most data-compression 
programs would fail to recognize this sequence and would not compress the million bits at all, since the bits in a binary 
expression of pi are effectively random and thus have no repeated pattern according to all tests of randomness. 
But if we can determine that the file (or a portion of the file) in fact represents pi, we can easily express it (or that 
portion of it) very compactly as "pi to one million bits of accuracy." Since we can never be sure that we have not 
overlooked some even more compact representation of an information sequence, any amount of compression sets only 
an upper bound for the complexity of the information. Murray Gell-Mann provides one definition of complexity along 
these lines. He defines the "algorithmic information content" (Ale) of a set of information as "the length of the shortest 
program that will cause a standard universal computer to print out the string of bits and then halt."

However, Gell-Mann's concept is not fully adequate. If we have a file with random information, it cannot be 
compressed. That observation is, in fact, a key criterion for determining if a sequence of numbers is truly random. 
However, if any random sequence will do for a particular design, then this information can be characterized by a 
simple instruction, such as "put random sequence of numbers here." So the random sequence, whether it's ten bits or 
one billion bits, does not represent a significant amount of complexity, because it is characterized by a simple 
instruction. This is the difference between a random sequence and an unpredictable sequence of information that has 
purpose. 
To gain some further insight into the nature of complexity, consider the complexity of a rock. If we were to 
characterize all of the properties (precise location, angular momentum, spin, velocity, and so on) of every atom in the 
rock, we would have a vast amount of information. A one-kilogram (2.2-pound) rock has 10
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atoms which, as I will 
discuss in the next chapter, can hold up to 10
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bits of information. That's one hundred million billion times more 
information than the genetic code of a human (even without compressing the genetic code).
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But for most common 
purposes, the bulk of this information is largely random and of little consequence. So we can characterize the rock for 
most purposes with far less information just by specifying its shape and the type of material of which it is made. Thus, 
it is reasonable to consider the complexity of an ordinary rock to be far less than that of a human even though the rock 
theoretically contains vast amounts of information.

One concept of complexity is the minimum amount of 

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