Microsoft Word 2007 ichrie conference Proceedings Final-Final 06-06-07. doc

 
2007 Annual International CHRIE Conference & Exposition 
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and Taiwan since Kim et al. (2006) used quarterly GDP and TA, and Oh (2005) hired quarterly GDP and tourist 
receipts to perform the empirical test. 
Lastly, we take the potential impact of some mega events related to the tourism industry in those four Asian 
tourist destinations into the examination as well. For example, Chen, Kim and Kim (2005) reported that the outbreak 
of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the U.S., 
the Asian financial crisis and the earthquake on September 21, 1999 had a negative impact on the hotel and tourism 
industry in Taiwan. Similarly, Chen (2006) found that the SARS outbreak in China and the terrorist attacks in the 
U.S. affected the Chinese hotel industry negatively. Raab and Schwer (2003) further reported that the Asia financial 
crisis in 1997 had a strong influence on Las Vegas Strip baccarat revenues. Most of empirical studies failed to take 
those mega-events into consideration when Granger causality tests were performed. Thus, when running the 
multivariate Granger causality tests, we further use dummy variables of mega events to control for the possible 
influences of those forces on causal links among four factors. Note that although we examine the dynamic 
interactions among tourism expansion, industrial production, exchange rates and exports, our major focuses are on 
the causal relationship between tourism development and the other three factors.