Microsoft Word 2007 ichrie conference Proceedings Final-Final 06-06-07. doc

Key Words
: Input-output, Forecast, Economic Impacts 
INTRODUCTION 
In order to develop a destination strategically, operate services effectively, project the number of visitors 
more accurately, and foresee the needs for facilities, it is crucial for public and private tourism related organizations 
to understand the importance of forecasts and tourism economic impacts. Because of the importance of tourism 
economic impacts and visitation forecasts, statistics such as arrivals, expenditures, and receipts have been compiled 
by various tourism related organization in the past decades. Most recent economic studies have reported positive 
economic effects of tourism on surrounding communities. Several studies have been conducted on the economic 
impacts of destinations, national tourism, and recreational activities (Cordell, Bergstrom and Watson, 1992; 
Dawson, Blahna and Keith, 1993; Finn and Erdem, 1995; Gazel and Schwer, 1997; McHone and Rungeling, 2000; 
Mules and Faulkner, 1996; Sullivan, Patterson and Williams, 1992; Uysal, Pomeroy and Potts, 1992; Yuan and 
Christensen, 1994; Chen, 1996; Chen, Hunt and Ditton, 2003). In addition, forecasting demand has attracted 
considerable interest as well. Studies that have documented the visitation forecasts are numerous and include Geurts 
(1982), Van Doorn (1984), Uysal and Crompton (1985), Summary (1987), Sheldon (1993), Archer (1994), Gonzalez 
and Moral (1995), Lim (1999), Chen, Bloomfield, and Fu (2003), and Chen (2006a). 
Studies concerned with forecasting the visitation figures integrated with tourism economic impact 
assessment are rare in the literature. This study focuses firstly on illustrating the importance of the input-output 
(I/O) modeling, economic impact assessment (EIA), and direct, indirect, and induced effects. The second focus of 
the study is to present a forecasted economic impact assessment (EIA) by using an I/O model and forecasts 
(including future visitations and projected spending profiles) under the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) 
system to estimate the forecasted EIA of a selected regional destination in the US.