Members in Transition Committee The Role of Oil and Gas in the Next 100 Years. March 3, 2017 Outline

US Energy Consumption

	1915	2009
Coal	13.3	19.8
Petroleum	1.4	35.3
Nat Gas	0.7	23.8
Renewables	1.7	1.9
Hydro	0.7	2.7
Nuclear	0.0	8.4

	Percent Coal, Gas and Petroleum
1915	85.9
2009	86.5

1917

US Oil Production

Source: US Energy Information Administration. Data: Production.[1] Net imports.[2], CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24951796

Crude Prices

Source: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdf

The Art of Forecasting

The Art of Forecasting

Source: Harvard Business Review, July-August, 2007

Predictions and Forecasts

• Predictions are made in world of certainty
• Forecasts are in the real world
• Little is certain
• Nothing is preordained
• What we do now affects how events unfold
• The goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities
• Not a limited set of illusory certainties
• The consumer of forecasts are not trusting bystanders
• But participants
• And critics

The Art of Forecasting

Source: Harvard Business Review, July-August, 2007

Cone of Uncertainty

• As a decision maker, you ultimately have to rely on your intuition and judgment.
• Forecasts provide essential context
• Narrow your decision space for intuition

The Art of Forecasting

Source: Harvard Business Review, July-August, 2007

In our case we turn to the

• International Energy Agency and the
• Energy Information Administration

for forecast information and for carefully considered thoughts on the extent of uncertainty