Iraq Aff Wave 1

Withdrawal during the electoral transition crushes its legitimacy – causes Iraq to collapse into sectarian conflict and war

Max Boot (Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations) May 9, 2010 “ Maliki's Actions, and Obama's Inaction, Threaten an Iraq Democracy “http://www.cfr.org/publication/22084/malikis_actions_and_obamas_inaction_threaten_an_iraq_democracy.html

That should be no surprise considering that President Obama's overriding objective is to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq. The Iraqi-American security accord negotiated by the George W. Bush administration called for the departure of all our soldiers by the end of 2011. Obama added a new twist by ordering that troop strength be cut from the current 95,000 to 50,000 by September. The presumption was that the drawdown would occur after Iraq had installed a new government. American officials expected that postelection jockeying would end by June at the latest. But Iraqi politicians now expect that no government will emerge before the fall. Thus the Iraqi and American timelines are dangerously out of sync. Large troop reductions at a time of such political uncertainty will send a dangerous signal of disengagement and lessen America's ability to preserve the integrity of the elections. The delay in seating a government also endangers the possible negotiation of a fresh accord to govern Iraqi-American relations after 2011. It is vital to have a continuing American military presence to train and advise Iraqi security forces, which have grown in size and competence but still aren't capable of defending their airspace or performing other vital functions.

Troops Key to Successful Gov’t Formation

Troops are key to maintain stability during the electoral transition – turns case

Dale McFeatters (Staff writer for the Washington Times) June 16, 2010 “ Leaving Iraq not as simple as it sounds “http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2010/06/137_67724.html

Iraq's new parliament met for 18 minutes this week, just long enough for the members to be sworn in and postpone indefinitely their first order of business, choosing someone for the largely ceremonial post of president. Even so, U.S. officials counted the abbreviated session as a victory of sorts. More than three months after the elections, Iraq still does not have a government and it may be weeks, even months, before it gets one. This could greatly complicate U.S. plans for withdrawal ― all combat troops out by Aug. 31, except for 50,000 to remain as trainers of the Iraqi security forces and to conduct counterterrorism operations as needed. Those remaining troops are to be gone by the end of 2011. But absent a government, the U.S. military might be Iraq's only guarantee against anarchy and a resumption of sectarian fighting. The problem is that the March 7 elections did not produce a clear winner, only a narrow plurality. The Iraqiya party of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi won 91 seats in the 325-seat parliament. The State of Law party of incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki won 89 seats. Allawi believes he should be given time to build a majority coalition. The two major Kurdish parties, with 43 seats, say they would be amenable to joining that coalition contingent on written guarantees about such issues as the division of oil revenues. But Iran brokered a coalition of the two major Shiite parties. This new National Alliance has 159 seats, enough for al-Maliki and other Shiite leaders to claim the right to form the government. The question of whether a bloc created after the election can pre-empt the party with the most votes is before the Iraqi courts

Withdrawal Crushes Electoral Transition

Withdrawal during the electoral transition crushes its legitimacy – causes Iraq to collapse into sectarian conflict and war

Boot 10 - Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations (Max Boot, May 9, 2010 “ Maliki's Actions, and Obama's Inaction, Threaten an Iraq Democracy “http://www.cfr.org/publication/22084/malikis_actions_and_obamas_inaction_threaten_an_iraq_democracy.html)
That should be no surprise considering that President Obama's overriding objective is to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq. The Iraqi-American security accord negotiated by the George W. Bush administration called for the departure of all our soldiers by the end of 2011. Obama added a new twist by ordering that troop strength be cut from the current 95,000 to 50,000 by September. The presumption was that the drawdown would occur after Iraq had installed a new government. American officials expected that postelection jockeying would end by June at the latest. But Iraqi politicians now expect that no government will emerge before the fall. Thus the Iraqi and American timelines are dangerously out of sync. Large troop reductions at a time of such political uncertainty will send a dangerous signal of disengagement and lessen America's ability to preserve the integrity of the elections. The delay in seating a government also endangers the possible negotiation of a fresh accord to govern Iraqi-American relations after 2011. It is vital to have a continuing American military presence to train and advise Iraqi security forces, which have grown in size and competence but still aren't capable of defending their airspace or performing other vital functions.

HR Cred Low Now

Human Rights Credibility low now

China Daily, 3-23-10. “China Reports on US Human Rights Record.” http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-03/12/content_9582218.htm

The US is looked down upon internationally for human rights abuses now BEIJING - China Friday retorted US criticism by publishing its own report on the US human rights record. The report is "prepared to help people around the world understand the real situation of human rights in the United States," said the report. The report reviewed the human rights record of the United States in 2009 from six perspectives: life, property and personal security; civil and political rights; economic, social and cultural rights; racial discrimination; rights of women and children; and the US' violation of human rights against other countries. It criticized the United States for taking human rights as "a political instrument to interfere in other countries' internal affairs, defame other nations' image and seek its own strategic interests." China advised the US government to draw lessons from the history, put itself in a correct position, strive to improve its own human rights conditions and rectify its acts in the human rights field. This is the 11th consecutive year that the Information Office of China's State Council has issued a human rights record of the United States to answer the US State Department's annual report. "At a time when the world is suffering a serious human rights disaster caused by the US subprime crisis-induced global financial crisis, the US government still ignores its own serious human rights problems but revels in accusing other countries. It is really a pity," the report said.