BP vs. Exxon Mobil (BP’s closest competitor) – 1 year trend
This graph shows how BP stacks against the S&P 500 and its closest competitor Exxon Mobil. BP has still outperformed the S&P 500, but fell short to Exxon Mobil. Both energy moguls/businesses show the same trend that it follows a similar pattern to that of the market. Demand can be interpreted to be quite high.
BP vs. Industry vs. S&P 500 (Monday, November 14, 2005)
In this trend analysis, BP has outperformed the S&P 500 as well as its industry. Note that BP significantly has beaten the industry on November 14, 2005. Continue to notice the trend that the energy industry is outperforming the market but follows its movement very closely. BP is outperforming its industry average.
Industry vs. S&P 500 (5 day trend)
The industry over the past five days has dropped below the returns of the S&P 500. The reason for this drop in late last week can be attributed to closing last week at a three month low in crude oil. It slowly is starting to rise back up because demand is still present and on Monday, to investors dislike, December crude finished 16 cents up at $57.69. Unleaded gasoline rose 1.05 cents to $1.49 per gallon, while heating oil rose 0.69 cents to finish out Monday at $1.73 a gallon.
Week’s Key data for oil traders will be Wednesday’s Energy Department update of U.S. fuel inventories.
Analysts think that the report will state that crude oil and gasoline will fall by 2 million barrels and distillates, jet fuel, will rise by 2 million barrels.
The recent weather has also played an important factor in the recent weeks as relative warmth has blanketed the Northeast and driven down prices. Cooler temperatures will arrive in the Northeast by midweek as a cold front brings rain, showers and thunderstorms, Weather.com reported.
Sustained cold weather is not expected to last and traders/investors are not expecting a freeze yet.
BP vs. Industry (5 day trend)
Over the last 5 trading days, BP has been closely correlated with its industry. BP edged out an increase at the close of November 14, 2005.
The industry which BP is in is referred to as the Major Integrated Oil and Gas. The sector they are affiliated with is referred to as Basic Materials. From all of the previous graphs and charts, one can infer that the energy industry, Major Integrated Oil and Gas Industry, has outperformed the S&P 500, except for the three month low closing of December crude. The industry is closely follows the movements of the market thus looking like it is mimicking the market but with higher returns, if price of crude oil rises. BP has outperformed the S&P but only recently has it passed the industry. The competitors within this industry are
Exxon Mobil: XOM:NYSE
Chevron Corp. CVX:NYSE
Royal Dutch/Shell: Pvt1 (private filing and must ask for statements)
Valero Energy. VLO: NYSE
ConocoPhillips. COP: NYSE
Those five are BP’s main competitors within its Major Integrated Oil and Gas Industry. Valero might now be considered part of the Major Integrated Oil and Gas Industry.
The industry as a whole is down to the market (S&P 500) because of last weeks close of December crude. On Monday however, December Crude rose as well as gasoline and heating oil. Thus, causing an increase slightly in the price. And Stocks rise because of this.
BP vs. XOM vs. CVX vs. S&P 500: 1 year, 5 day, and 1 day Trends
BP’s direct competitors are Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX)
Looking at the one year trend, BP and Chevron Corp. are very correlated (almost identical patterns of returns), while Exxon Mobil seemed to have outperform both of them consistently throughout the year. The Major Integrated Oil and Gas industry noting a one year trend analysis has had higher returns then the S&P 500.
Now looking at a five day trend, the S&P 500 has had greater returns then the Major Integrated Oil and Gas industry. Exxon Mobil, BP, and Chevron Corp. have not outperformed one another but have felt the effect of falling crude oil prices. As said earlier, last weeks close for December crude marked a three month low of $57.53. News of the falling crude is reflected starting Wednesday November 9, 2005.
On Monday, November 14 oil prices began to rise again moderately. The price increase raised the return for the energy industry and is reflected in the rising returns.
Last, looking at a one day trend analysis of the Major Integrated Oil and Gas Industry businesses compared to the S&P 500, BP and Exxon closed with higher returns than Chevron Corp. and the S&P 500. BP on Monday November 14, had significant increase of 1.19% and closed at $65.49.
The energy industry follows the market pattern for volatility. So as long as the market is not in a recession than in the long run, energy stocks and BP will have higher returns than the S&P 500.
Among energy stocks, Amex oil index closed up 1.1% and Philadelphia Stock Exchange Oil Service Index gained 1.3%. Exxon Mobil climber 0.23%, BP inched up 1.19%, Valero Energy gained 4.12%, while Chevron dropped 0.02% and ConocoPhillips fell 0.27%.
Note, this week’s key data for oil traders and investors is Wednesday’s Energy Department update of U.S. fuel inventories.
Pvt1 = Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies (subsidiary or division)
Industry = Major Integrated Oil & Gas
1 = As of 2004
Comparing BP to its direct competitors and to the industry, BP is substantially leading the way. BP has the biggest Market capitalization, highest revenue, highest net income, high P/E ratio and practically outperformed its competitors and the industry.
These integrated companies primarily dominate the energy industry, however, Valero Energy has a higer quarterly revenue growth, P/E, and PEG. It is not listed however as a direct competitor of BP.
