I. Investment Highlights Company Profile



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  1. Balance Sheet:




PERIOD ENDING

31-Dec-04

31-Dec-03

31-Dec-02




Assets

Current Assets




Cash And Cash Equivalents

1,156,000  

1,947,000  

1,520,000  




Short Term Investments

328,000  

185,000  

215,000  




Net Receivables

46,696,000  

40,716,000  

33,150,000  




Inventory

15,698,000  

11,617,000  

10,181,000  




Other Current Assets

-  

-  

-  




Total Current Assets

63,878,000  

54,465,000  

45,066,000  

Long Term Investments

18,392,000  

18,637,000  

4,728,000  

Property Plant and Equipment

96,455,000  

91,911,000  

87,682,000  

Goodwill

11,079,000  

10,838,000  

10,354,000  

Intangible Assets

4,204,000  

4,473,000  

5,128,000  

Accumulated Amortization

-  

-  

-  

Other Assets

7,069,000  

1,139,000  

4,633,000  

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

(1,533,000)

(65,000)

(78,000)




Total Assets

199,544,000  

181,398,000  

157,513,000  




Liabilities

Current Liabilities




Accounts Payable

54,341,000  

41,128,000  

36,215,000  




Short/Current Long Term Debt

10,184,000  

9,456,000  

10,086,000  




Other Current Liabilities

-  

-  

-  




Total Current Liabilities

64,525,000  

50,584,000  

46,301,000  

Long Term Debt

17,412,000  

12,869,000  

11,922,000  

Other Liabilities

11,734,000  

21,783,000  

18,139,000  

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

19,438,000  

15,273,000  

13,514,000  

Minority Interest

1,343,000  

1,125,000  

638,000  

Negative Goodwill

-  

-  

-  




Total Liabilities

114,452,000  

101,634,000  

90,514,000  




Stockholders' Equity

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

-  

-  

-  

Redeemable Preferred Stock

-  

-  

-  

Preferred Stock

21,000  

-  

21,000  

Common Stock

5,382,000  

5,552,000  

5,595,000  

Retained Earnings

37,763,000  

38,700,000  

32,344,000  

Treasury Stock

-  

-  

-  

Capital Surplus

6,366,000  

4,480,000  

4,243,000  

Other Stockholder Equity

35,560,000  

31,032,000  

24,796,000  




Total Stockholder Equity

85,092,000  

79,764,000  

66,999,000  




Net Tangible Assets

$69,809,000  

$64,453,000  

$51,517,000  











  1. Free Cash Flow




PERIOD ENDING

31-Dec-04

31-Dec-03

31-Dec-02

Net Income

17,090,000  

13,143,000  

8,397,000  




Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In

Depreciation

12,583,000  

10,940,000  

10,401,000  

Adjustments To Net Income

(9,105,000)

(6,750,000)

(5,694,000)

Changes In Accounts Receivables

(10,920,000)

(5,628,000)

(2,672,000)

Changes In Liabilities

9,861,000  

1,750,000  

2,846,000  

Changes In Inventories

(3,595,000)

(841,000)

(1,521,000)

Changes In Other Operating Activities

-  

-  

-  




Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities

24,066,000  

16,731,000  

15,903,000  




Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In

Capital Expenditures

(13,035,000)

(12,440,000)

(12,116,000)

Investments

-  

41,000  

1,147,000  

Other Cashflows from Investing Activities

1,081,000  

2,705,000  

(234,000)




Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities

(11,954,000)

(9,694,000)

(11,203,000)




Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In

Dividends Paid

(6,074,000)

(5,654,000)

(5,264,000)

Sale Purchase of Stock

-  

(1,826,000)

555,000  

Net Borrowings

-  

760,000  

(736,000)

Other Cash Flows from Financing Activities

-  

-  

-  




Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities

(6,074,000)

(6,720,000)

(5,445,000)

Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes

-  

-  

-  




Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents

$6,038,000  

$317,000  

($745,000)















Earnings, Revenue and Growth Forecasts from Analysts

Obtained data from finance.yahoo.com


Earnings Estimates and Trends BP

Earnings Est

Current Qtr
Dec-05

Next Qtr
Mar-06

Current Year
Dec-05

Next Year
Dec-06

Avg. Estimate

1.87

1.83

6.35

7.00

No. of Analysts

11

4

17

17

Low Estimate

1.57

1.45

5.70

5.51

High Estimate

2.23

1.97

6.82

9.00

Year Ago EPS

1.33

1.39

4.63

6.35



EPS Trends

Current Qtr
Dec-05

Next Qtr
Mar-06

Current Year
Dec-05

Next Year
Dec-06

Current Estimate

1.87

1.83

6.35

7.00

7 Days Ago

1.87

1.83

6.35

7.00

30 Days Ago

1.96

2.07

6.68

7.31

60 Days Ago

1.81

1.63

6.42

6.49

90 Days Ago

1.72

1.77

6.15

6.16










  • BP’s current estimate fluctuated starting low, then increasing and then reducing their estimate. An explanation for the drop in their explanation from 30 days ago could be that crude oil prices are on their way done and thus there profits are decreasing.


Revenue Estimates and Trends

Revenue Est

Current Qtr
Dec-05

Next Qtr
Mar-06

Current Year
Dec-05

Next Year
Dec-06

Avg. Estimate

N/A

N/A

322.98B

355.36B

No. of Analysts

0

0

3

3

Low Estimate

N/A

N/A

271.10B

275.72B

High Estimate

N/A

N/A

384.40B

476.93B

Year Ago Sales

N/A

N/A

N/A

322.98B

Sales Growth (year/est)

N/A

N/A

N/A

10.0%




Growth Est

BP

Industry

Sector

S&P 500

Current Qtr.

40.6%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Next Qtr.

31.7%

N/A

N/A

N/A

This Year

37.1%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Next Year

10.2%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Past 5 Years (per annum)

7.1%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Next 5 Years (per annum)

8.7%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories)

10.2

N/A

N/A

N/A

PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories)

1.17

N/A

N/A

N/A

  • Notably most of the information was not submitted and therefore further analysis is impossible.



VIII. Analysis of Risk


  • BP is a stable company and is a proven leader in its industry. BP has settled all of its claims outstanding in March of 2005 and it does not pose any threat to hurting our portfolio. The energy industry has been outperforming the S&P 500 and analysts believe that the integrated oil and gas industry will keep returns higher than the market. The energy sector is pretty correlated with the movements of the market. As long as our economy does not go into recession, then the demand for petroleum products will keep rising. China and India consuming so much oil and with expected forecasts of a 2% increase in consumption in 2006, the demand is going to definitely outweigh the supply that the world has. It is included in the Amex

  • BP is traded on the NYSE under the ticker, BP, and its price is currently between its 52 week high and low.

  • BP has a Beta of 0.50 (www.advfn.com) and it’s standard deviation, or relevant risk is 3.30

Marketability

  • Trading Location: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

  • Average Volume: (3 mo.) 3,589,640


Total Risk

  • 52 week range

  • The 52 week range for BP is $56.60 - $72.66. The closing price on Monday November 14, 2205 was $65.50 which was a 1.19% increase from Friday November 11, 2005 with a stock price of $64.72.

  • Finance.yahoo.com graph:



  • Clear to see that BP’s stock price is not that volatile and has been on a steady increase.

  • Standard Deviation: 3.3


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