S
tepheN
c
orby
GolDen ruleS
1. Choose something you can be passionate about.
2. build systems. Simplify every process and make
sure it can be duplicated.
3. Fix things once. Multiply every problem by 100
before starting on the solution.
4. Look at where you are getting results and focus
resources there.
5. be honest and open with your staff. Communi-
cation is critical.
A Fascination
With Figures
Angus Geddes
Fat Prophets;
established 2000;
thirty- five employees;
$5 million- plus turnover
There’s something strange,
almost freakish, about
highly successful city busi-
nessmen. Very often you find that before they
applied their nuclear- powered brains to finance
they studied quantum physics, built their own
computers or wrote papers about how to solve
Rubik’s cubes, things that are incomprehensible
to most p eople.
Photo: Angelo Soulas
A FASCINATION WITH FIgURES 83
By the time he turned twelve, Angus Ged-
des had memorised the names of every director
of every company on the New Zealand stock
exchange. Rain Man would have been proud. ‘I
was just fascinated by investing,’ he recalls. ‘I’d read
every company report to soak up all the infor-
mation I could. I read annual reports from cover
to cover.’ That same year, Geddes decided that
the savings he’d put in the bank weren’t return-
ing enough interest. So he became an investor.
‘In the early 1980s, interest rates in New Zealand
were pegged at about 2 per cent, and I’d saved
up a couple of hun-
dred dollars. I told
my dad, There has to
be a way of getting a
better return on my
money. So we went
to the stockbrokers to open an account.’ By the
age of sixteen, Geddes had turned his
$
200 into
$
40,000.
‘I made some extraordinary calls,’ he says. ‘And
I had some luck. But I also had a good broker
who gave me some good steers that chimed with
my own judgment.’ That was the era of Wall
Street the movie, yuppies and the ‘greed is good’
mentality. But for Geddes, it was never about the
money. He claims never to have aspired to big
‘ ‘
I’d read every company
report to soak up all the
information I could. I read
annual reports from cover
to cover.
84 HOW I MADE MY FIRST MILLION
houses or flash cars. He drives an eighteen- year-
old Mercedes 560SL which, he says proudly, has
appreciated in value.
For Geddes, everything is about value. He
won’t fly first class because he doesn’t think it’s
worth it, but does fly business because it deliv-
ers comfort at a reasonable price. His investment
approach is the same. He looks for out- of- favour
companies that have been underperforming the
market for an extended period and are, in his
view, underpriced. Then he invests, waiting for a
turnaround in sentiment to take the share price
back up. The approach has served him well for
two decades, although it took him six years to
recover from the 1987 market crash.
In the early 1990s, Geddes travelled to Lon-
don and New York and worked in stockbroking,
gaining valuable experience that he put to good
use when he arrived in Sydney in the mid- 1990s.
‘I took a job at a small brokers on full commis-
sion—no salary at all—and I hit the Yellow Pages,
cold- calling professionals like doctors, lawyers
and accountants. I asked if they’d be receptive
to good investment opportunities, and I would
often leave them with a tip. They’d see the com-
pany do well, and that would get them interested.
Many of those clients are still with me.’
At the time, Geddes says, he was a bit of a
A FASCINATION WITH FIgURES 85
maverick: ‘No one was doing that kind of cold-
calling in Sydney—but I’d seen the guys on
Wall Street doing the same thing. It’s hard, but
it worked. Within six months, I was writing
$
300,000 to
$
400,000 of business a year, taking
home the best part of
$
200,000.’
Soon afterwards Geddes was headhunted by BT
Financial, where he stayed for a couple of years
before moving on to broker JBWere. His value-
investing approach meant standing firmly against
the trend. ‘Back in 2000, when the technology
bubble was inflating, every body was piling into
it. But I just knew it was going to crash. You see,
I’d seen it all before, in 1987, when I lost a huge
chunk of my own money that I’d spent half my
life accumulating. That really hurt. And I could
see all the warning signs again: hugely overvalued
companies based on virtually no earnings, massive
speculation, the madness of crowds. It had gone
crazy.’
While many of his peers were cheerleading
for high- tech, ‘I was advocating gold and energy
stocks, both of which had been completely out
of favour and were coming out of long bear
markets. I think a lot of p eople thought I was a
bit mad. It turned out to be a great call, because
gold and value stocks such as energy companies
did exceptionally well.’
86 HOW I MADE MY FIRST MILLION
Geddes tried to get his clients out of tech
and into these value stocks, but was largely
ignored. ‘I showed them graphs of the ’87 crash
and the past and present Nasdaq index, and said
the same thing was going to happen, but most
of them were so sold on the tech story they’d
just go and buy tech stocks through another
broker,’ he says.
That was a turning point for Geddes, who
found the experience so exasperating that he
decided to quit. ‘I just thought that I’d be better
off backing my own
ideas: starting my
own newsletter and
website where I can
write my thoughts
down and clients
can read it or throw
it away, but I’m not
going to go hoarse on the phone every day giv-
ing p eople advice they’re just going to ignore.
It’s tough as a stockbroker, because you’re inter-
acting with p eople’s greed and fear, which are
very intense emotions. It can be exhausting, like
banging your head against a brick wall, especially
if you’re a contrarian investor like me.’
Geddes set up his own independent research
house and named it Fat Prophets. Thanks to some
‘
‘
It’s tough as a
stockbroker, because
you’re interacting with
p eople’s greed and fear,
which are very intense
emotions.
A FASCINATION WITH FIgURES 87
astute stock- picking, his small base of initial sub-
scribers quickly expanded—to the surprise of
some early nay- sayers: ‘P eople thought it was
crazy to call ourselves Fat Prophets, because it’s
a bit “out there” and not very conservative; they
said investors wouldn’t trust us. And they were
probably right in the very early days, but we
soon made some good calls and our reputation
started growing.’
Although he had been earning good money for
some time, Geddes says it wasn’t until 2002–03,
when the business had gained some momentum,
that he made his first million—a combination
of his personal share portfolio and the value of
the business. But his response was just business
as usual: ‘I certainly didn’t stop and think that I’d
made it, or that it was any kind of milestone.’
The business was so successful that Fat Proph-
ets opened an office in London and now has
a funds- management arm as well as a listed
investment company with
$
50 million under
management. Geddes has also launched a popular
range of so- called separately managed accounts:
preselected portfolios of shares for investors. And
soon he wants to launch a hedge fund.
His mantra, ‘There is no such thing as failure
in business,’ has made him fearless, giving him
the drive to make Fat Prophets a truly global
88 HOW I MADE MY FIRST MILLION
brand and the belief that he can. So what is
Geddes investing in now? Not property, that’s
for sure. ‘I sold my apartment in 2003 and have
used the money to much better effect by invest-
ing in equities,’ he says. ‘You’re better off renting
and investing your money in shares than buying
a property right now. Why buy an underper-
forming asset that might yield 2 per cent when
you could get into shares that will give returns
of five or ten times that much? I think resi-
dential property prices are at risk: interest rates
are going to rise, and in eighteen months or so
I think you could see prices falling and some
good buying opportunities springing up. But I
won’t be buying anything till I see some value
in the market.’
When Geddes says his investing philosophy is
not about the money, that isn’t entirely true. It is
about the money, but as an abstract score rather
than hard cash. The dollars he earns are just points
in a big game called Success in the City. All Ged-
des wants is to be right, see his theories borne out
and prove his critics wrong. So far, so good.
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