How bad could it get? America’s ugly election

C O N G O

C A R

CONGO-

BRAZZAVILLE

TANZANIA

UGAND

A

SOUTH

SUDAN

ANGOLA

ZAMBIA

BURUNDI

RWANDA

Kinshasa

Ituri

Bukavu

Goma

Beni

500 km

Violence against civilians

Jan 1st-Aug 1st 2020, fatalities

Source: ACLED

1

10

30

W

hat makes

a national election na-

tional? One answer is that everyone is

able to vote. But politicians in Burkina Faso

disagree. With little consultation, the main

political parties have voted to change the

electoral code so that presidential and leg-

islative elections to be held in November

will be deemed valid even if people are un-

able to vote in the vast tracts of the country

that are plagued by jihadists. 

One 

mp

, Aziz Diallo, describes the

change as an “attack on democracy”. An-

other, Alexandre Sankara, says it “violates

the constitution”. It is but the latest worry-

ing sign in a country at the heart of the fight

against violent extremists in the Sahel.

Only a few years ago Burkina Faso

looked on the road to democracy after a

popular uprising toppled its longtime dic-

tator, Blaise Compaoré, leading to free elec-

tions in 2015. The first big setback was a

spillover of jihadist violence from neigh-

bouring Mali that has intensified since

2018. More than 1,700 people were killed in

the first half of this year in fighting that of-

ten involved ethnic militias, up from about

300 in the whole of 2018. Roughly half the

country (mainly rural areas) has been over-

run by armed groups, says Héni Nsaibia of

Menastream, a research consultancy. Over

1m people, of a population of 20m or so,

have been forced to flee their homes. 

Many more than that may struggle to

vote. In July 52 of 127 

mp

s said it was not safe

to campaign in their constituencies. Voters

in the countryside are the most likely to be

left out. In almost a fifth of villages no vot-

ers have been registered at all. Polling sta-

tions will probably be abandoned in many

more villages on election day, when the se-

curity forces will be stretched thin. Mr San-

kara reckons that people may be disenfran-

chised across five of Burkina’s 13 regions. 

In July politicians ruled out delaying

the elections because they feared that

would deprive the government of legitima-

cy. But ignoring the rights of millions may

be no better, particularly since those who

will be unable to vote because of insecurity

are precisely those who have most reason

to be angry with incumbent politicians. 

What with widespread accusations of

atrocities by the security forces, Burkina

Faso’s government could soon face a crisis

of legitimacy much like the one that is tear-

ing Mali apart. There, too, jihadists have

overrun swathes of the countryside. Dodgy

parliamentary elections with a paltry turn-

out earlier this year were followed by mas-

sive anti-government protests and then a

coup. 

ecowas

, the regional bloc, has told

the soldiers running Mali to hand back

power to a civilian administration and

hold elections within a year. But the men in

uniform want to stay in power for three

years. When democracy falls, it is hard to

restore. Burkina beware. 

7