How bad could it get? America’s ugly election

Dreaming of Keir

Who cares? Even the Lib Dems’ strategists don’t expect more than

30 seats at the next election. Yet the possibility of a Lib Dem revival

matters, for the party is likely to take votes from the Tories. The Lib

Dems have always been at their happiest when engaged in ground

wars with the Conservatives. Their new profile pits them even

more directly against their old enemy. They have captured several

Tory seats in a “yellow halo” around London such as Twickenham,

St Albans and Richmond Park. Tim Bale, of Queen Mary College,

London, calculates that, in 23 of the 29 seats that they are well posi-

tioned to win, they are the main challenger to the Conservatives,

with every other party a distant third. 

Sir Keir and Sir Ed have a lot in common other than their rather

embarrassing knighthoods: both recognise that they have a moun-

tain to climb and both are keen on the politics of competence rath-

er than culture wars. They also have much to gain from working to-

gether, at least informally. Labour needs the Lib Dems more than

ever because, having lost its base in Scotland, it is unlikely to form

a government on its own. The Lib Dems see their future in detach-

ing the educated bourgeoisie from the Conservatives. Old-fash-

ioned liberals have been dreaming of a Lib-Lab rapprochement for

decades. That vision—or mirage—is taking shape once more. 

7

The Lib Dems might just fly again 

Bagehot

Although they have few 

mp

s, the Liberal Democrats still matter

---

The Economist

September 5th 2020

25

1

I

n

1946, 

as

France emerged from the hor-

rors of war, Charles de Gaulle devised 

le

Plan

to rebuild his battered country. Cen-

tred on the theme “Modernisation or Deca-

dence”, the first five-year plan identified

six industries—coal, electricity, steel, tran-

sport, mechanised agriculture and ce-

ment—on which France would construct a

modern economy. “Modernisation”, de-

clared Jean Monnet, the first commission-

er of the Plan (and later co-architect of

European integration), is a “state of mind”.

Indeed in the French mind, the Plan was in

large part to thank for the 30 years of pros-

perity—

les trente glorieuses

—that followed.

The office of the Plan was not formally

abolished until 2006, but France has not

drawn up a five-year plan for nearly 30

years. A successor body, known as France

Stratégie, scarcely mentioned the word

Plan at all. From the mid-1980s, the forces

of liberalisation and globalisation increas-

ingly turned the former institution and its

focus on planning into a quaint historical

relic. Until now. 

On September 3rd, as 

The Economist

went to press, the French government was

set to announce the resurrection of the

mighty Plan. The first commissioner of the

revived bureaucratic body will be François

Bayrou. A veteran centrist, he is the leader

of MoDem, a party that is crucial to Presi-

dent Emmanuel Macron’s governing ma-

jority in parliament. Mr Bayrou will not

join the government, but will report to it. 

State planning and the desire for auton-

omy in strategic industries have a long his-

tory in France, reaching back to Jean-Bap-

tiste Colbert, Louis XIV’s finance minister.

In more recent times, as liberal orthodoxy

prevailed globally, it became the preserve

of diehard French 

dirigistes

, often to the

disapproval of their German friends. The

covid-19 pandemic, however, is now shift-

ing the debate well beyond France. Short-

ages of masks have called into question the

wisdom of relying on global supply chains.

Overwhelmed hospitals have strengthened

the case for investment in public health.

Home-working and a fear of crowds have

reset the discussion about the geography

and greening of the city, just as border clo-

sures have thrown the travel, tourism and

aerospace industries into disarray.

The point of resurrecting the Plan, says

Mr Macron, is “to rediscover the sense of

the long-term” and make sure that govern-

ment is not only about crisis management.

To the relief of many, five-year plans will

not make a comeback. But Mr Bayrou will

set out how France should prepare for

2030: how to move towards a lower-carbon

economy, invest in the right skills for to-

morrow’s world of work and strengthen lo-

cal industries across the country.

“The French Plan was never a Soviet-

style plan,” says Jean Pisani-Ferry, an econ-

omist and former head of France Stratégie,

who cautions against caricature. In its ear-

ly guise, the Plan was indeed about public

investment in roads, railways, electricity

and telecoms. But it also relied heavily on 

France