The Economist
September 5th 2020
United States
31
1
B
efore the
pandemic, packed subway
cars were signs of the vitality of New
York City. Squeezing into a packed carriage
just as the doors closed was the norm until
mid-March. By the time a train reached
Manhattan people would be wedged in,
shoving past each other to leave. It is diffi-
cult to imagine anyone enduring that
crush now. Yet it is also hard to see New
York truly bouncing back without it. “The
subway is the barometer of New York,” says
Tom Wright, head of the Regional Plan As-
sociation. “If the transit system falls apart,
New York will not recover.”
The system is on the verge of financial
collapse. Pat Foye, chairman of the Metro-
politan Transportation Authority (
mta
),
the state entity in charge of the subway,
buses and regional commuter lines as well
as some bridges and tunnels, painted a
bleak picture at a recent board meeting.
The agency is losing $200m a week because
fare revenues, tolls and subsidies are all
down, while the
mta
is shouldering new
pandemic-related expenses (mostly shut-
ting down the normally 24-hour subway
for nightly cleaning). Passenger numbers
collapsed as covid-19 spread and have risen
only modestly as New York City has re-
opened. On August 31st 1.4m straphangers
rode the subway, but that was still 75% be-
low a typical weekday in 2019. The pan-
demic has taken a greater toll even than the
Great Depression; passenger numbers de-
clined by only 12% in 1929-33.
The
mta
hopes for $12bn in federal
funding to get through this year and next.
Without help, Mr Foye will be obliged to
take “draconian measures”, which will be
felt across the city and the region for de-
cades. He spoke of a 40% reduction in sub-
way and bus journeys and a probable re-
duction of up to 50% in services to the
suburbs. Long-promised capital projects
will be delayed or suspended. Fares and
tolls will go up and the agency will lay off
8,400 employees, who have already had a
tough time. Thousands of
mta
workers
were infected with covid-19, more than 130
died and many lost family members to the
virus. Mr Foye repeatedly drew parallels
with the 1970s, when New York City sought
a federal bailout to avoid fiscal collapse and
hundreds of thousands of residents fled.
When, and if, office workers will return
to Manhattan is uncertain. Many have not
swiped their MetroCard for six months.
Most are afraid to use the subway, despite
the transit authority’s aggressive disinfect-
ing. Service cuts could deter them from
commuting regularly. There is anecdotal
evidence that those who fled from the city
are not returning. Many may drive back in,
increasing congestion. A decrease of 10%
in subway passengers means an increase of
more than 30% in road traffic, says Nicole
Gelinas of the Manhattan Institute, a New
York think-tank. “If you are not investing
in your capital asset, if you are driving
away ridership with service cuts, you are
just accepting much, much lower revenues
for a long time,” she adds. All that leaves
people who depend on the transit system,
such as shift workers and shop workers, to
bear the brunt of higher fares.
The system has long had fiscal pro-
blems. Little more than a decade after it
opened in 1915, it faced a crisis when infla-
tion raised operating expenses for the priv-
ate companies then running the subway.
After the second world war, New Yorkers
abandoned the subway for cars. During the
1960s and 1970s the system was not well
maintained, which caused delays and dis-
ruption. Every surface was covered in graf-
fiti. Crime was rife. Even before the pan-
demic the
mta
was paying nearly 20% of its
operating budget on debt service and its in-
frastructure was crumbling, with some of
its signal systems dating back to the 1930s.
In the past few months the
mta
has
been downgraded by various credit agen-
cies, which makes borrowing more expen-
sive. The agency is not allowed to file for
bankruptcy and is required by law to bal-
ance its books. In the past it has turned to
the city and state for help, but they are
cash-strapped, too. New York’s officials say
Congress should help, since if New York
does not recover, the whole country will
suffer. Senate Republicans have not been
sympathetic, however. Congress gave the
beleaguered agency $4bn in May as part of
the
cares
Act, but the
mta
had spent all
that by July 24th.
It may start to make cuts in November.
If Joe Biden wins, it may get a little more
time. But delaying track upgrades and sig-
nal systems will cause problems fast,
which will further hobble the city’s recov-
ery. “New York without its subway system,”
says Philip Plotch, author of “Last Subway”
and a political scientist at Saint Peter’s Uni-
versity in Jersey City, “is like a skyscraper
without an elevator.”
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