Hamburg: Stock of residential properties 2016/2017
A price rise of up to 8 per cent expected in 2017
Prices in the environs rising faster than in city area
Apartment prices in the environs approaching cost of single family houses
Hamburg, 24 November 2016. The average prices being paid for pre-owned standard apartments/condominiums* and standard single family houses** located in Hamburg and its environs will continue to rise in 2017. For real estate in the city area Hamburg property services provider Grossmann & Berger forecasts price rises of 5.6% for apartments and 2.3% for houses. Increases in the price of pre-owned properties in Hamburg’s environs will be even more pronounced. In this sector Grossmann & Berger is expecting apartment prices to rise by 8.0% and house prices by 3.6%.
Catch-up effects in moderately-priced locations
“Pre-owned properties that offer what most buyers usually want keep increasing in price. Prices have not fallen in 2016 and are not expected to do so in 2017 either, at most we could see prices remaining constant in a few city districts,” says managing director Lars Seidel, commenting the main findings of the just-published market survey of the stock of residential properties in Hamburg. Everything will depend on whether or not the economic environment remains as it is now. “We expect to see especially strong growth in locations where prices are lower than 3,000 euros per square metre.” In March this year the EU directive on credit agreements relating to residential property was implemented and it could continue to have a negative effect on the sale of pre-owned properties in locations where demand is low; indeed, with greater obstacles to obtaining a loan emerging in the course of 2016, properties are remaining on the market for longer.
Prices in the environs catching up
Grossmann & Berger’s research shows that in 2017 the average selling price for an apartment in the city area of Hamburg will be €3,800/m² of living space, and for a house €4,500/m². In the environs of Hamburg the property services provider expects to see average prices of €2,800/m² for apartments and €2,900/m² for houses.
Apartments in the environs trending up
“The high prices demanded in the city are encouraging home buyers, including those looking for an apartment, to move to the environs. Therefore the prices for apartments in these areas will rise sharply in 2017 and come closer to those paid for single family houses,” says Andreas Gnielka, head of residential building stock/letting. Grossmann & Berger have projected that the greatest price rises for apartments and the overall market in 2017 will be in three towns in the environs of Hamburg: Pinneberg (+14.3%), Buchholz (+12.5%) and Norderstedt (+12.0 %).
Harvestehude is set to remain the most expensive part of Hamburg city in 2017, with apartments costing €6,900/m² of living space and standard town villas*** costing €9,700/m². The most affordable apartments within city limits, costing €2,300/m² of living space, will be located in Marmstorf, Neugraben-Fischbek and Rönneburg; the cheapest houses are likewise in Rönneburg at €2,400/m².
Environs 2017: Wohltorf/Aumühle is the priciest area
In 2017 Grossmann & Berger expect to see top average selling prices in Wohltorf/Aumühle. In this area it is expected that the going rate for apartments will be €3,400/m² of living space and for houses €3,600/m². The cheapest asking prices in the forecast are €2,000/m² for apartments in Bönningstedt and €2,300/m² for houses in Henstedt-Ulzburg and Buchholz. “Whereas in 2016 we recorded average selling prices of below 2,000 euros per square metre of living space in two markets in the environs, all prices will be higher than that in 2017,” comments Gnielka.
“Rising Stars” 2017: The North and East gaining a lot of momentum
Grossmann & Berger have identified six city districts and four towns in the environs as locations with special growth potential in terms of demand and prices. The property services provider arrived at their conclusions by evaluating all city districts in Hamburg plus selected locations in the environs in respect of future price growth, current prices, future demand, convenience of train services, quality of location and development outlook. “Our new “Rising Stars” in the city are Neugraben-Fischbek, Sülldorf and Barmbek North. Billstedt, Rothenburgsort and Schnelsen still count as “Rising Stars” whereas Bramfeld, Heimfeld and Rissen, which have stabilized at a higher level than before, have ceased to qualify because they no longer have exceptional potential,” explains Gnielka. “For the first time we have identified “Rising Stars” in the environs too. These are Pinneberg, Norderstedt, Ahrensburg and Oststeinbek/Glinde/Reinbek.” Within these “Rising Stars”, Grossmann & Berger expect to see house prices increase most in Schnelsen (+10% to €3,300/m² of living space) and apartment prices to grow most in Pinneberg (+14.3% to €2,400/m² of living space).
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G&B-Price Trend: Assessment of the attainable selling prices for standard properties, well constructed and fitted out, in good residential neighbourhoods:
* Standard condominium: vacant, 3 rooms, around 80 m² of living space, 1st upper floor, lift (elevator), fitted kitchen
** Standard single family house: detached, with cellar, at least 130m² of living space, plot size typical for the location
*** Standard town villa: 2 to 3.5 stories, at least 150 m² of living space, lavish fit-out, garden
The full market survey can be downloaded from our website and contains information on prices in 2016 and what may be expected in 2017.
Source, chart: Grossmann & Berger Research
Source, photo: Grossmann & Berger GmbH
Photo caption: Pre-owned property - merchant’s villa built 1914 - beside the Alster River in Hamburg-Poppenbüttel, currently being offered for sale via Grossmann & Berger.
About Grossmann & Berger
Grossmann & Berger GmbH is one of the leading real estate service companies for the sale and lease of commercial and residential real estate in Northern Germany. With ten offices in Hamburg and further ones in Berlin, on the island of Sylt and in Luneburg the company is present throughout the Northern German market. Thanks to more than 80 years of experience, the company disposes of an extensive real estate competence. Grossmann & Berger is a subsidiary of the HASPA-Group and founder member of the nationwide commercial real estate network German Property Partners. [www.grossmann-berger.de]