Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Indo-Pak War Turns China/Russia/Iran

Stable India and Pakistan key to keeping China, Russia and Iran in check
Glardon 5 (Thomas L., Lt. Colonel for USAF, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/ksil12.pdf) GAT

In addition to resolving the above threats, the U.S. has an unprecedented opportunity to improve U.S. security and economic prosperity through improved relations with India and Pakistan. In security, a stable and friendly Pakistan and India will provide a counterbalance to the regional powers of China, Russia and Iran.

Indo-Pak War Turns Regional Stability

The internal structures of the countries means that any conflict in that area would spill out rapidly
Glardon 5 (Thomas L., Lt. Colonel for USAF, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/ksil12.pdf) GAT

India and Pakistan suffer from internal unrest that inhibits internal stability and threatens civil war. Both states have multi-ethnic populations, many of which profess separatism and even contempt for their parent state.vi From Sikh unrest in the Punjabvii to the Assam, Nagaland, and Manipur independence movements viii to northern Maoist insurrections,ix India faces destabilizing conflict across its territories. Pakistan, too, faces internal unrest from separatists in such communities as the Sindh,x Pushtuns in western Pakistan, and radical Islamists in remote Waziristan.xi These internal conflicts threaten the internal stability of these states and, in the case of Pakistan, the stability of the regime. As well, the internal conflicts could potentially spill into other states in the region. For example, in the mid 1980s, India claimed Pakistan supported a Sikh Punjab uprising. This belief resulted in military operations along the border of Pakistan, drawing out the Pakistan forces in a face-off.xii Thus a civil conflict does not just threaten the stability of one state, but also that of all South Asia.
Focus on an improbable war between India and Pakistan ignores the real problem of non-traditional intrastate conflicts
Dahal et al 3 (Shiva Hari, Haris Gazdar, S. I. Keethaponcalan, Padmaja Murthy, researchers for the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, http://www.unidir.org/pdf/ouvrages/pdf-1-92-9045-148-3-en.pdf) GAT

The discourse on regional security in South Asia tends to be focused on the inter-state rivalry between the two largest states in the region—India and Pakistan. The overt introduction of a nuclear dimension into the India- Pakistan relationship has generated international interest in a South Asia preoccupied to no small extent with the threat of a nuclear confrontation and its potential effects on regional and global security. During his visit to the region in March 2000, the then President Bill Clinton declared Kashmir to be “the most dangerous place on earth”. His assessment was based not on an evaluation of day-to-day security threats faced by civilians in Kashmir, but on the concern that the territory might become the cause of a nuclear exchange that would have far-reaching effects.3 The importance placed on the conflict between India and Pakistan, with its new nuclear dimension, is not unfounded—the impact of a nuclear war would be felt around the world. At the same time, however, the near exclusive focus on state-to-state relations between the region’s two most militarily significant countries has overshadowed other conflicts that also have had devastating consequences. This imbalance has persevered despite evidence that traditional state-to-state conflict might contribute relatively less to everyday insecurity as experienced by civilian populations than do non-traditional intra-state conflicts. A recent study conducted by the RAND Corporation for the United States army, for example, concluded that the probability of a premeditated, full-scale war between India and Pakistan was virtually negligible in the next decade.4 However, violent confrontation persists. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that the three most prominent violent internal conflicts in the region in 1999 were each directly responsible for over a thousand deaths.5

***CHINA***

China Stability Solves Asian Instability

Chinese stability key to Asian stability

DPJ 99 [Democratic Party of Japan, June, http://www.dpj.or.jp/english/policy/security.html]

China is a major player in this region on a par with the United States. It is also likely to become an increasingly important player in the international community. It will be extremely significant for the sake of stability in the Asia-Pacific region if China maintains its economic course of reform and opening, while continuing to follow a path of cooperative diplomacy, starting with its active involvement in bodies such as APEC and ARF. Strengthening the U.S.-China and Japan-China partnerships will be an important factor in promoting regional peace. The DPJ will work to further deepen both Japan-U.S. and Japan-China relations.

China Instability Turns US Economy

Chinese economic instability damns the US economy

Blankenhorn 6 [Dana, business journalist, June 23, http://www.danablankenhorn.com/2006/06/this_weeks_clue_3.html]

Stability. This is China's card. Stability made China an economic power during the 1990s. Stability is the "gift" China now seeks to give the world. At a time when the U.S. is contributing mightily to global instability, other nations have been grabbing Chinese stability as a lifeline. Most Americans have not noticed because stability is quiet. It doesn't make headlines. And, we thought, it didn't impact us. In The Chinese Century I posited an unstable way in which Chinese stability might be imposed on us. I saw things happening in an American way, dramatically, with big sudden events arising from simple misunderstandings. In fact it's happening far more subtly, in a Chinese way. Recently, for instance, U.S. markets tanked. So did European markets. So did commodity prices. Analysts on CNBC were saying things like "nothing is working." Well, something was working. The Chinese Central Bank was working. Zhouxiaochuan What was happening was a subtle shift of Chinese investment out of the dollar. Slower purchases of U.S. assets mean both lower values and higher interest rates. The message we weren't getting from our media, was that we had lost control of our economy. But the markets heard loud and clear. This was followed in China by an attempt to cut lending and slow the Chinese economy. It is being called a "subtle shift" of economic policy, an attempt to create a "soft landing" by a pilot, Zhou Xiaochuan, who has never flown the economic plane before. They have a cold, we catch the flu. China wants to cool off its growth, we slide into recession. The policies which control our economy are being made in Beijing, not in Washington. That's how other economies have had to deal with America's changes for decades. That's what we have to get accustomed to now.