Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Iraq Instability Turns Turkish Relations

Iraqi Instability destroys US relations with Turkey

Abramowitz 7 (Morton, senior fellow at The Century Foundation July 24, “How to Save Iraqi Kurdistan from Itself,” Foreign Policy)AQB

With Gaza under the sway of Hamas, Lebanon paralyzed, and Iraq near collapse, the Middle East has never looked more perilous. But if the United States doesn't move to defuse the dangerous situation in Iraqi Kurdistan fast, Washington could find itself with yet another ticking time bomb. As if disaster in Baghdad were not enough, Washington has largely stood by as Iraq's Kurds have become embroiled in a fierce dispute with Turkey that threatens to explode into violence, destabilize northern Iraq, and further embitter relations between the United States and Turkey, a vital strategic ally for 60 years. With parliamentary elections out of the way, Turkey may well invade northern Iraq, a move that—to put it mildly—would complicate an already complicated situation in the Middle East. There is still time for the United States to prevent such a catastrophe, but this season's bloody offensive by the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a separatist guerrilla group labeled a terrorist organization by the United States, has brought tensions to a near-boiling point. Turks are enraged that PKK forces can launch bombing attacks in Turkey and then find safety and sympathy in the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Turkish military increasingly warns that it needs to attack these safe havens, and it has massed tens of thousands of troops at the border. Turkish concerns over northern Iraq, of course, run deeper than the PKK. The mostly autonomous Kurdish entity next door is the threat to Turkey's territorial integrity that its leaders long feared—potentially deepening Kurdish nationalism among its 12 to 15 million-strong Kurdish minority. And then there's Kirkuk, which looms as a litmus test of Kurdish intentions. The Kurdish Regional Government is encouraging Kurds to migrate to this historically mixed city, seeking to hold a referendum by year's end to make the area part of Iraqi Kurdistan. But Kurdish absorption of oil-rich Kirkuk would only vindicate Turkish (and Arab) suspicions that the Kurds are plotting for independence—long a red line for all Turkish governments.

Iraq Instability Turns Economy

Iraqi instability kills the global economy
Ferguson 6 [Niall, Professor of History at Harvard University, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/09/the_next_war_of_the_world.html, ]

What makes the escalating civil war in Iraq so disturbing is that it has the potential to spill over into neighboring countries. The Iranian government is already taking more than a casual interest in the politics of post-Saddam Iraq. And yet Iran, with its Sunni and Kurdish minorities, is no more homogeneous than Iraq. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria cannot be expected to look on insouciantly if the Sunni minority in central Iraq begins to lose out to what may seem to be an Iranian-backed tyranny of the majority. The recent history of Lebanon offers a reminder that in the Middle East there is no such thing as a contained civil war. Neighbors are always likely to take an unhealthy interest in any country with fissiparous tendencies. The obvious conclusion is that a new "war of the world" may already be brewing in a region that, incredible though it may seem, has yet to sate its appetite for violence. And the ramifications of such a Middle Eastern conflagration would be truly global. Economically, the world would have to contend with oil at above $100 a barrel. Politically, those countries in western Europe with substantial Muslim populations might also find themselves affected as sectarian tensions radiated outward. Meanwhile, the ethnic war between Jews and Arabs in Israel, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank shows no sign of abating. Is it credible that the United States will remain unscathed if the Middle East erupts?

Iraq Instability Turns Terrorism

Iraqi instability breeds terrorism.

Xinhua News Agency 9(“Obama underlines U.S.-Turkish cooperation on Iraqi stability, anti-terrorism, Mideast peace” April 7)AQB

ANKARA, April 6 (Xinhua) -- Visiting U.S. President Barack Obama stressed on Monday the U.S. readiness to work with Turkey to secure Iraq's stability, fight terrorism and push for Middle East peace process. "Both Turkey and the United States support a secure and united Iraq that does not serve as a safe-haven for terrorists," Obama said when addressing the Turkish parliament on his first state visit to the Muslim country, the last leg of his maiden European trip. Admitting that the U.S.-led Iraqi war was controversial, Obama said it is time to come together to "end this war responsibly." He said the U.S. troops in Iraq will withdraw by the end of August next year, adding that the United States "will work with Iraq, Turkey, and all of Iraq's neighbors to forge a new dialogue that reconciles differences and advances our common security." Obama termed terrorism as a common threat to Iraq, Turkey and the United States, saying there is no excuse for terror against any nation. He pledged to provide continued support to Turkey against the terrorist activities of the outlawed Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK),adding his hope for increasing cooperation between Turkey, the Iraqi government and Iraq's Kurdish leaders, and more Turkish efforts to promote education and opportunity for Turkey's Kurds.

Iraq Instability Turns Civil War

Instability in Iraq causes Kurdish civil war.

Butters and Arbil 7 (Andrew, American journalist based in the Middle East; and Lee, degrees in history from Brown and Cambridge universities Apr. 12, 2007 “Kurdistan: Iraq's Next Battleground?”)AQB

Iraqi Kurds have been in control of their region since 1991, when, with the help of the U.S.-enforced no-fly zone, they drove Saddam's forces out of northern Iraq. But now, four years after the liberation of the rest of the country, Kurdish Iraq is undergoing an identity crisis. On the one hand, it is a rare success story in the Middle East: a stable territory run by a secular leadership committed to economic and political reform and sitting on a huge pool of oil. On the other hand, it is tiny and landlocked, uncomfortably attached to a war-ravaged nation and surrounded by unfriendly neighbors. Despite the region's outward signs of tranquillity, the fate of Kurdistan--whether it will continue as an inspiring example of what the rest of Iraq could look like or become engulfed by the country's violence--remains unresolved, dependent as much on what happens to the barely functioning Iraqi state as on the Kurds. For the Bush Administration, the central question is how long the Kurds can be persuaded to remain part of a united Iraq. The overwhelming majority of Kurds would like to break free of Iraq and form an independent nation. So far, Kurdish leaders have been a constructive force in holding Iraq together, helping to write and adopt a national constitution that, although it gave great powers to the regions, has kept Iraq intact as a federal state. Kurds are serving at the highest levels of the Iraqi government, including as President, Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. But it's doubtful that spirit of cooperation will last. The further that Iraq slides into civil war, the more the Kurds will want to insulate themselves from it, by carving out more political and economic autonomy. Even if they stop short of outright secession, the Kurds could still unleash new conflicts in Iraq if their impatience with the fecklessness of the Baghdad government prompts them to take action on their own. The most explosive flashpoint is Kirkuk, the disputed oil-rich city that the Kurds lay claim to. As Iraq's Kurdish President, Massoud Barzani, said on March 22 during the farewell visit of departing U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, "Our patience is not unlimited." So what happens to Iraq when it runs out?