Giorgi baRaTuria

Рецензент – профессор Хубашвили Ия Багратовна, Тбилисский государственный унивесритет им. Ив.Джавахишвили
irine iaSvili, mari sako
msoflio ekonomikuri krizisi da iaponia
dRes, rodesac msoflio ekonomikuri krizisi metnaklebad Seexo msoflios TiTqmis yvela qveyanas, interesmoklebuli ar iqneba SeZlebisdagvarad ganvixiloT am qveynebSi ekonomikuri krizisis Sedegebi, aseve mTavrobis reaqciebi am qveynebSi Seqmnil ekonomikur krizisze da mis Sedegebze. cxadia msoflios ganviTarebuli qveynebidan, msoflios lideris amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis Semdeg, gansakuTrebul interess iwvevs Tavisi midgomebiT iseTi araordinaluri qveynis ganxilva rogoricaa iaponia, radganac rogorc cnobilia, iaponelebi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis da finansuri rezervebis mxriv msoflioSi meore adgilas arian.
aRsaniSnavia, rom miuxedavad imisa, rom iaponelebs didi imedi qondaT Tavisi eqsportis (romlis ZiriTad nawils avto da eleqtronuli produqciis eqsporti warmoadgens) da didi finansuri rezervebis, msoflio ekonomikurma krizisma maT ufro Zlierad daartya vidre dasavleTis sxva ufro ganviTarebul qveynebs. Aamaze isic metyvelebs rom, ekonomikurma problemebma am qveyanaSi mniSvnelovnad gazarda TviT-mkvlelobis ricxvi. Pparadoqsia, magram iaponiaSi gaizarda interesi marqsizmisadmi da aseve kompartiis rigebSi SemsvlelTa raodenoba.
aRsaniSnavia, rom iaponias aqvs msoflioSi yvelaze Zviri antikrizisuli paketi, magram amasTan iaponiaSi dReisaTvis yvelaze didi problemaa_is, rom mTavrobas ar SeuZlia aiZulos xalxs, rom maT daxarjon sakuTari fuli. Mmiuxedavad imisa, rom iaponiis bankebi dRes ukeTes mdgomareobaSi arian, vidre amerikisa da evropis bankebi, isini warmoebebs arc Tu didi enTuziazmiT aZleven kreditebs. TviT iaponiis centraluri bankis uprecendento nabijma, rogoricaa refinansirebis (procenti romliTac centraluri banki aZlevs sesxebs sxva bankebs) ganakveTis Semcireba 0,1%-ze, ar imuSava.
iaponiis mTavrobam gadawyvita emoqmeda sxva kuTxiT. man aiRo kursi sakuTari produqciis gayidvis raodenobis mkveTr gazrdaze qveynis mosaxleobaze. am mizniT mTavrobam daiwyo ekonomikis Sevseba sabiujeto fuliT. optimisti eqspertebis prognoziT es saSualebas miscems qveyanas erTi-ori wlis Semdeg gazardos Sida saerTo produqcia, jerjerobiT ki mocemul 2009 wels winaswarmetyveleben mis dacemas 3%-iT (rac sakmaod didi ricxvia). (1)
amave wels iaponiaSi igegmeba ekonomikis stimulirebaze, damatebiT gamoiyos uprecendento Tanxa 150 miliardi amerikuli dolaris odenobiT. sad moxdeba maTi gadanawileba?
iaponiis mTavrobam SeimuSava ekonomikis zrdis strategia, romlis ZiriTadi amocanebia: 1. uaxloes sam weliwadSi minimumamde iqnes dayvanili naxSiris, navTobis da gazis moxmareba da erTi SexedviT ekonomikis zrdisagan daSorebuli sakiTxi, mosaxleobis sicocxlis xangrZliobis gazrda.
mTavrobis gaTvlebiT, fulis mozidva sferoSi, romlebmac unda gadawyvitos sicocxlis xangrZliobis sakiTxi, gazrdis iaponelTa moTxovnebs sakuTar nivTebze (sagnebze), 600 miliard dolaramde da Seqmnis or milionamde axal samuSao adgils.
radganac sazogadoeba ”avaldebulebs” icocxlon didxans da amasTan ar iavadmyofon, mTavrobam gadawyvita maT amaSi daexmaros. yvela rkinigzis sadgurebi aRiWurveba invalidebisaTvis saWiro teqnikuri aRWurvilobiT. moxucTa movlis sferoSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvi ukve 10 wlis Semdeg ganzraxulia gaizardos 40%-iT, _ 2.2 milionamde. garda amisa mTavrobas surs msoflioSi gripis axali epidemiebis winaaRmdeg yvelaze efeqturi winaRoba (safari) Seqmnas.
radganac aseT sazogadoebas ar sWirdeba avtomobilebis saziano gamonabolqvi, amitom TiToeul ojaxSi saWiroa gaCndes eleqtromobilebi, energiis Semnaxveli mowyobilobebi da sistemebi, romlebic muSaoben mzis energiaze. (2020 wels dagegmilia maTi warmoeba gaizardos 20-jer). ukve dawyebulia subsidiebis gamoyofa ufro ekonomiuri avtomobilebis SesaZenad. 13-welze ufrosi manqanebis Cabarebisas iaponiis moqalaqeebi miiReben 2500 amerikul dolars. energiis ekonomiurad moxmarebis aparaturis (mag. uTos) SeZenis SemTxvevaSi mTavroba moqalaqes Rirebulebis 5%-s kompensacias gaukeTebs. iaponiis mTavrobis antikrizisul paketSi gaTvaliswinebulia aseve mosaxleobis mxardaWeris sxva zomebic. magaliTad weliwadSi erTxel 6 wlamde bavSvebze gaTvaliswinebulia daxmareba 360 amerikuli dolaris odenobiT. arasrulwlovanebs (axalgazrdebs 20-wlamde) da 75 welze ufross xalxs gamoeyofa 200 amerikuli dolari. sxva mcxovreblebs 120 amerikuli dolari. Tumca arsebobs safrTxe rom am fulis did nawils iaponelebi Seinaxaven “leibebSi”, radganac ufrosi Taobis iaponelebs aqvT fulis dagrovebis Cveuleba. (iaponelebis pensia ganisazRvreba yofili xelfasis 60%). Uukanaskneli informaciis mixedviT, xalxis danazogis saerTo Tanxa iaponiaSi ukve 1,5 trilion amerikul dolars Seadgens. cxadia Seugneblad, magram iaponelebi TviTon aferxeben qveynis krizisidan gamosvlas TavianTi xelmoWerilobiT.
iaponiis mTavroba iyenebs ra Tavis wina gamocdilebas, gamoyofs fuls saavtomobilo da rkinigzis gzebis, saporto infrastruqturebis mSeneblobaze, dambebis Seqmnaze. amiT xalxs gauCndeba damatebiTi Sansi moZebnon samuSao. adre amas emateboda didi moTxovnileba iaponur produqciaze mTels msoflioSi. radganac dReisaTvis amerikaSi da evropaSi aRar yiduloben iaponur saqonels, xolo amave saqonelze qveynis SigniT Semcirda moTxovnileba, mTavrobam gadawyvita daxmareboda azias ekonomikuri problemebis mogvarebaSi da amiT gazardos moTxovna iaponur saqonelze. (rogorc cnobilia, msoflio ekonomikuri krizisi azias ise ar Seexo rogorc amerikas da dasavleTs, amis magaliTad CineTis dasaxelebac sakmarisia), aziur qveynebs gamoeyofaT 22 miliardi dolari mcire procentiani kreditis saxiT da 2 miliardi oficialuri daxmarebis saxiT. magram! Sesabamisi proeqtebis realizaciisaTvis saWiro yvela saqoneli SeZenili unda iqnes iaponaSi.
cnobilia, rom iaponiaSi Zalian maRalia gadasaxadebi. aq moqmedebs saSemosavlo gadasaxadebis sakmaod mkveTri progresirebadi skala. (magaliTad memkvidreobiT miRebuli saxlidan an Tanxidan 50% rCeba mTavrobas). amitom antikrizisuli RonisZiebebis CarCoebSi miRebuli iqna gadawyvetileba 50 000 dolaramde Sefasebul saqonels an Tanxas saSemosavlo gadasaxadi ar Seexos, Tu igi gadaecema mSoblebidan Svilebs an bebiidan SviliSvilebs. magram gadasaxadidan ganTavisufleba garantirebulia mxolod im SemTxvevaSi Tu es fuli daixarjeba axali binis an saxlis mSeneblobaze an miwis yidvaze. (mag. ipoTekuri kreditis pirvel Senatanad). radganac, iaponelTa umetesoba cxovrobs pawawina saxlebSi an binebSi, romlebsac TviTon uwodeben kurdRlis qoxs, amitom sacxovreblebis mSenebloba _ esaa iaponelTa didi rezervi. Tu masSi Caideba fuli, maSin igi gaqaCavs mTel ekonomikas jaWvurad. (2)
unda aRiniSnos rom ekonomikaSi sazogadoebis saxsrebis did Cadebas aqvs ukumxare. iaponiis saxelmwifo sesxi ukve 170-180% Sida saerTo produqciis _ rac msoflios ganviTarebuli qveynebis yvelaze cudi maCvebelia. amasTan saxelmwifo biujetis deficiti 1,5%-s Seadgens da is ufro gaizrdeba. Sesabamisad 2011 wlisTvis dagegmili proficitis miRweva gadaido ganusazRvreli vadiT. saqme iqamde midis, rom gaizrdeba samomxmareblo gadasaxadi, romelic dReisdReisobiT Seadgens produqtis 5%-s. imisaTvis, rom am rTul situaciaSi moiZebnos fuli, iaponelebma kvlav gadawyvites gamouSvan saxelmwifo grZelvadiani obligaciebi 400 miliardi dolaris odenobiT. es niSnavs rom saxelmwifo vali kvlavac gaizrdeba. problema didia, magram rogorc mTavrobaSi gacxadda, maTTvis mTavari ara biujeturi problemaa, aramed qveynis recesiidan (warmoebebis moculobis xangrZlivi vardna) gamoyvanaa.
Tumca mimaCnia, rom es aris gza finansuri valdebulebebis iaponiis momavali Taobebis mxrebze gadatanisaken.