Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

5.1   FbA linked to community 

development programmes 

Forecast-based systems have been integrated into 

community-based disaster risk reduction and development 

programmes, as well as linked with country-wide 

contingency planning and response by humanitarian 

agencies. For example, forecast-based financing has been 

used by the Togolese Red Cross to preposition and then 

distribute relief supplies as the risk of flooding increases. 

World Vision builds on its longer-term community-

development programmes, which facilitate bottom-up 

generation of early warning information and early action. 

Similarly, Christian Aid partners, for example through the 

BRACED project, tend to use a participatory vulnerability 

and capacity assessment approach. In combination with 

improved access to climate information services, this aims 

to increase coping capacity through community resilience 

planning and motivate early action when a shock is forecast. 

FbA initiatives have occurred primarily through the 

integration of finance and planning processes. Many 

organisations have their own financial mechanisms and 

dedicated funds to spend on early action, and deliver 

directly to high-risk communities in specific countries 

(as described in Section 4). These financial mechanisms 

are linked to planning tools known variously as Early 

Action Protocols (EAPs), Standard Operating Procedures 

(SOPs), early action plans and contingency plans. In the 

case of the Red Cross societies, EAPs define ‘who takes 

what action when, where, and with what funds’ (Cruz 

Roja Peruana, German Red Cross and Red Cross Red 

Crescent Climate Centre, 2016). These EAPs, which 

are separate from government emergency plans, build 

on existing Red Cross operational and programmatic 

capacities. Despite using separate delivery channels, FbA 

initiatives are often implemented in close collaboration 

with national governments. Cash transfers using country-

wide public or private delivery systems are also growing 

in popularity, although there is a recognition that cash 

is not always appropriate. For instance, if markets 

are unable to meet rising demand for goods before an 

event, in-kind distributions may be more suitable. The 

Bangladesh Red Crescent has distributed cash transfers 

based on a flood forecast; triggered by Dzud forecasting, 

the Mongolia Red Cross has organised cash deliveries 

to beneficiaries through local bank branches, and the 

START Network has disbursed cash based on food 

insecurity forecasts in Somalia.