Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

5.3   International humanitarian response

Finally, FbA has been integrated into international 

humanitarian response mechanisms. Within the UN 

system, the IASC has supported the development of 

global SOPs for El Niño for IASC partners and NGOs in 

response to the devastating impacts of the 2015–2016 El 

Niño. The SOPs support the coordination of early action 

at international, regional and country level, defining roles 

and responsibilities, taking into account the capacities 

and resources of the actors involved.

These delivery channels and governance processes 

do not need to be separate. The Red Cross promotes 

government leadership in FbF, so that it can coordinate 

and delegate responsibilities to the Red Cross and other 

partners. In practice, this could mean the Red Cross 

carries out portions of government EAPs with government 

funding, or coordinates with the government to activate 

Red Cross EAPs using Red Cross funding. Coordination 

between stakeholders operating at different scales is 

key to ensuring that the right combination of actions is 

taken on time to minimise disaster impacts and reduce 

risks over the longer term. There are challenges with this. 

Existing FbA initiatives have been co-developed to varying 

degrees with governments, NGOs, UN agencies and other 

partners, and in some cases these initiatives have not been 

coordinated with government contingency plans and early 

warning systems. Limited capacity or political will, lack 

of data and weak planning systems and structures into 

which forecasts are to be integrated were all highlighted 

as challenges by interviewees and in the literature on FbA. 

While there is a general recognition that government 

ownership is desirable to ensure coordination and 

sustainability, it is less clear when a full handover from 

humanitarian organisations to governments is possible.

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