Box 3 Levels of automation in decision-making
Red Cross/Red Crescent FbF projects remove
as much real-time decision-making as possible
through Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs),
or Early Action Protocols (EAPs) as they are now
known. These are developed well in advance with
decisions already made about triggers, actions
and targeting. Experts from national hydro-met
offices, disaster risk management authorities and
international scientific institutions are involved
in the definition of the forecast threshold used as
a trigger. Upon submission of the EAP/SOP for
funding, the trigger is reviewed by expert bodies
to establish whether it qualifies for funding.
However, once the forecasts indicated in the
EAP reach the defined threshold, no more expert
judgment is used and the funding decision is taken
automatically. The use of pre-agreed automated
plans is a substantial change from the disaster-
specific decision-making processes that typically
characterise humanitarian operations within the
Red Cross/Red Crescent movement.
FAO uses a combined approach in its Early
Warning–Early Action activities. This means
cross-checking forecast triggers with human
judgement to validate triggers based on the
situation on the ground, to understand what
is realistic in a given context and to assess the
quality and reliability of the system. The approach
includes consultation with national and regional
experts and sub-national FAO offices to build a
common understanding of the situation before
implementing activities linked to a forecast.
At the other end of the scale, the protocols
used by the Start Network determine how expert
opinion will be used in response to a forecast –
there is no automation. The Start Network uses
information from international forecasting centres,
real-time monitoring by its members, independent
secondary data analysis and inputs from a technical
advisory group to translate an alert into a funded
action plan in less than 72 hours. Based on this
information, a context-specific decision is taken
about whether to trigger an action, what projects
to fund and the amount of funding to disburse.
WFP has tested both automatically triggered
and non-automated actions through the forecast-
based finance window of FoodSECuRE and
its El Niño defensive procurement initiative.
FoodSECuRE uses predefined climate forecast
triggers to release funding from a central pool to
implement contingency plans. During the 2014–
2016 El Niños, WFP analysed the impacts of El
Niño events on countries where the organisation
purchased food and provided assistance, and
used this information as part of its forward
procurement process to reduce the risks of price
increases in the supply chain.
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