Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

2.3   Triggers for action 

FbA mechanisms are designed to release funds and 

initiate early actions when pre-established thresholds are 

met (see Box 2). Key to this is a predefined process for 

either directly initiating specific activities, or developing 

action plans in real time after the forecast has been 

issued. Throughout this process, effective coordination 

Figure 3    The interaction of climate-related hazards, vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems

Source: IPCC (2014).

CLIMATE

IMPACTS

Natural variability

Anthropogenic

climate change

EMISSIONS

and land-use change

Governance

SOCIOECONOMIC

PROCESSES

Socioeconomic

pathways

Adaptation and

mitigation actions

Hazards

Vulnerability

Exposure

RISK

---

15

and urgency are crucial in order not to miss the 

opportunity for early action before a crisis escalates. The 

Start Network’s experience with its Crisis Anticipation 

Window ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Irma in the 

Caribbean shows how, despite discussion starting a full 

week before the hurricane made landfall, uncertainty 

on where the storm would hit delayed action (Start 

Network, 2017). While some practitioners have argued 

for and trialled automated triggers in FbA initiatives 

that require minimal real-time decision-making, several 

key informants highlighted the importance of human 

judgement in tracing evolving crises and deciding on 

adequate responses on the ground.