Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think

Factfulness
Factfulness is … recognizing when a category is being used in an
explanation,
and remembering that categories can be misleading. We can’t

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stop generalization and we shouldn’t even try. What we should try to do is to
avoid generalizing incorrectly.
To control the generalization instinct, 
question your categories.
•
Look for differences
within
groups.
Especially when the groups are
large, look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise
categories. 
And …
•
Look for similarities
across
groups.
If you find striking similarities
between different groups, consider whether your categories are
relevant. 
But also …
•
Look for
differences
across groups.
Do not assume that what applies
for one group (e.g., you and other people living on Level 4 or
unconscious soldiers) applies for another (e.g., people not living on
Level 4 or sleeping babies).
•
Beware of “the majority.”
The majority just means more than half.
Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in
between.
•
Beware of vivid examples.
Vivid images are easier to recall but they
might be the exception rather than the rule.
•
Assume people are not idiots.
When something looks strange, be
curious and humble, and think, In what way is this a smart solution?
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CHAPTER SEVEN
THE DESTINY INSTINCT
About rocks that move and what Grandpa never talked about
Snowballs in Hell
Not long ago I was invited to the five-star Balmoral Hotel in Edinburgh to
present to a gathering of capital managers and their wealthiest clients. As I set
up my equipment in the magnificent high-ceilinged ballroom, I couldn’t help
feeling a bit small, and I asked myself why a wealthy financial institution
would want its clients to hear from a Swedish professor of public health. I had
been carefully briefed weeks earlier, but to feel sure, I asked the conference
organizer again as I got onstage for a final rehearsal. He had a straightforward
explanation. He was having a hard time making his clients understand that the
most profitable investments were no longer to be found in European capitals
boasting medieval castles and cobbled streets, but in the emerging markets of
Asia and Africa. “Most of our clients,” he said, “are unable to see or accept
the ongoing progress in many African countries. In their minds, Africa is a
continent that will never improve. I want your moving charts to change their
static view of the world.”
My lecture seemed to go well. I showed how Asian countries like South
Korea, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore,
which had surprised the world with their economic progress over the past
decades, actually had made steady social progress during the decades before
their economic growth. I showed how the same process was now unfolding in

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