Development finance assessment

DFA scoping
DFA process & INFF inception phase
INFF set-up phase
INFF operational

---

98
DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
2. DEVEL
OPMENT FINANCE FL
OWS
USD millions, curr
ent
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 (e)
2020 (p)
2021 (p)
2022 (p)
2023 (p)
2024 (p)
2025 (p)
Sour
ce
For
ecasts
Comments
Gov
er
nment 
rev
enue
20,920
22,264
22,564
22,513
14,735
14,443
16,604
15,300
17,107
19,249
21,498
23,951
26,613
IMF GF
S until 
2017
Author
’s 
calculations b
ased 
on IMF Countr
y 
Repor
t No. 20/171 
from 2018 onwar
ds
Tax r
ev
enues
14,564
15,611
16,613
16,352
8,986
8,773
11,091
11,279
12,849
14,575
16,410
18,413
20,601
Non-tax r
ev
enues
2,652
2,481
1,847
2,007
1,441
2,024
2,686
1,630
1,791
1,961
2,132
2,323
2,527
Funds (incl. Social Sec. Contr
.)
3,704
Domestic debt
..
..
..
..
5,809
2,180
1,337
-
121
-
-
-
-
IMF Countr
y 
Repor
t No. 
20/171 fr
om 
2017 onwar
ds
Public
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Priv
at
e
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Domestic 
commer
cial 
inv
estment
12,958
14,793
15,440
15,075
12,514
10,736
17,011
11,744
14,623
17,831
21,501
25,823
28,683
WB’
s W
orld 
Dev
elopment 
Indicat
or
s (until 
2018)
Fr
om 2019 onwar
ds, 
author
’s 
calculations 
based on the av
erage shar
e o
f 
priv
at
e GFCF in t
otal 
GFCF in 2017-2018, combining the WB and IMF data series.
Pr
oxied by 
Gr
oss Fix
ed 
Capital For
mation, 
priv
at
e.
Official 
Dev
elopment 
Assistance
334
373
506
577
700
632
692
1,450
200
767
853
950
1,062
OECD
, Cr
edit
or 
Repor
ting 
Syst
em
Hypothesis that OD
A grants 
maintain absolut
e 
USD v
alue ov
er 
the next 5 y
ear
s; 
and OD
A lo
ans 
gr
ow at the same 
compound av
erage 
annual gr
owth rat
e 
of the period 2012- 2018 (13.9%). OD
A 
lo
ans for 2019-
2021 b
ased on 
IMF countr
y r
epor
t 
No.20/171.
OD
A lo
ans ar
e 
also included in public ext
er
nal debt
Grants
116
130
117
148
146
156
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
Lo
ans
218
244
389
428
554
476
542
1,300
50
617
703
800
912

---

99
ANNEXES
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 (e)
2020 (p)
2021 (p)
2022 (p)
2023 (p)
2024 (p)
2025 (p)
Sour
ce
For
ecasts
Comments
Other Official 
Flows
669
646
948
359
474
1,739
928
974
1,007
1,213
1,347
1,494
1,647
OECD
, Cr
edit
or 
Repor
ting 
Syst
em
Hypothesis that OOFs r
emain 
stable as a shar
e o
f 
GDP equal t
o the 
av
erage v
alue o
f the 
post
-r
efor
m y
ear
s 
(2016-2018).
Ext
er
nal debt
1,845
1,950
1,425
1,885
643
2,387
5,618
4,037
2,433
3,803
3,728
3,213
3,255
WB IDS 
(until 2018)
IMF Countr
y R
epor
t 
No. 20/171 fr
om 
2019 onwar
ds.
Includes only long-t
er
m 
for
eign debt. 
Public debt includes the IMF and WB COVID-Lo
ans.
public
535
537
884
1,026
919
2,387
4,713
4,037
2,177
3,094
2,930
2,280
2,658
priv
at
e
1,311
1,413
541
859
85
-
905
-
256
709
798
933
597
For
eign Dir
ect 
Inv
estments
635
WB IDS
(until 2018)
IMF Countr
y R
epor
t 
No. 20/171 fr
om 
2019 onwar
ds.
Total inflows
Por
tfolio 
Inv
estments
-
-
-
2
3
13
1,346
26
1,928
32
35
39
543
WB IDS 
(until 2018)
IMF Countr
y R
epor
t 
No. 20/171 fr
om 
2019 onwar
ds.
Total inflow
, 
includes the USD 1 billion Sov
er
eign 
Bond issuance
Remittances
7,561
6,566
3,939
3,784
4,897
5,115
8,700
5,800
8,100
8,700
9,500
10,000
10,500
CBU
(until 2018)
IMF Countr
y R
epor
t 
No. 20/171 fr
om 
2019 onwar
ds.
Total inwar
d 
remittances

---

100
DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
Per
cent o
f GDP
 
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 (e)
2020 (p)
2021 (p)
2022 (p)
2023 (p)
2024 (p)
2025 (p)
Sour
ce
Estimat
es and for
ecasts
Comments
Gov
er
nment r
ev
enue
30.0%
29.0%
27.6%
27.5%
24.9%
28.6%
28.6%
25.1%
25.4%
25.4%
25.5%
25.6%
25.8%
IMF GF
S until 2017
Author
’s calculations b
ased 
on IMF Countr
y R
epor
t No. 
20/171 fr
om 2018 onwar
ds
Tax r
ev
enues
21.1%
20.4%
2.3%
20.0%
15.2%
17.4%
19.1%
18.5%
19.1%
19.2%
19.5%
19.7%
20.0%
Non-tax r
ev
enues
3.8%
3.2%
2.3%
2.5%
2.4%
4.0%
4.6%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Funds (incl. Social Sec. Contr
.)
5.4%
5.4%
5.0%
5.1%
7.3%
7.2%
4.9%
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
Domestic debt
..
..
..
..
9.8%
4.3%
2.3%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
IMF Countr
y 
Repor
t No. 
20/171 fr
om 2017 
onwar
ds
Public
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Priv
at
e
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Domestic commer
cial 
18.8%
19.3%
18.9%
18.4%
21.2%
21.3%
29.3%
19.3%
21.7%
23.5%
25.5%
27.7%
27.9%
WB’
s W
orld 
Dev
elopment 
Indicat
or
s (until 
2018)
Fr
om 2019 onwar
ds, author
’s 
calculations using IMF
pr
ojections for 2020-2025
(Ar
t IV
, 2020). For the fir
st half
of 2020 the v
alue o
f gr
oss
inv
estment decr
eased by 20%
accor
dingt
o gov
er
nment data.
Fr
om 2021 onwar
ds a linear
recov
er
y t
owar
ds the av
erage
shar
e o
f priv
at
e inv
estment in
GFCF (71% for 2017-2018) by
2025 has been applied.
Pr
oxied by 
Gr
oss Fix
ed 
Capital For
mation, 
priv
at
e.
Official Dev
elopment 
Assistance
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
2.4%
0.3%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
OECD
, Cr
edit
or 
Repor
ting S
yst
em
Hypothesis that OD
A grants 
maintain absolut
e USD v
alue 
ov
er the next 5 y
ear
s; and 
OD
A lo
ans gr
ow at the same 
compound av
erage annual 
gr
owth rat
e o
f the period 
2012-2018 (13.9%). OD
A lo
ans 
for 2019-2021 b
ased on IMF 
countr
y r
epor
t No.20/171.
OD
A lo
ans 
ar
e also 
included in public ext
er
nal debt
Grants
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Lo
ans
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
2.1%
0.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%

---

101
ANNEXES
 
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 (e)
2020 (p)
2021 (p)
2022 (p)
2023 (p)
2024 (p)
2025 (p)
Sour
ce
Estimat
es and for
ecasts
Comments
Other Official Flows
1.0%
0.8%
1.2%
0.4%
0.8%
3.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
OECD
, Cr
edit
or 
Repor
ting S
yst
em
Hypothesis that OOFs r
emain
stable as a shar
e o
f GDP equal
to the av
erage v
alue o
f the
post
-r
efor
m y
ear
s (2016-2018).
Ext
er
nal debt
2.7%
2.5%
1.7%
2.3%
1.1%
4.7%
9.7%
6.6%
3.6%
5.0%
4.4%
3.4%
3.2%
WB IDS (until 2018)
IMF Countr
y R
epor
t No. 
20/171 fr
om 2019 onwar
ds.
Includes only long-t
er
m 
for
eign debt. 
Public debt includes the IMF and WB COVID-Lo
ans.
public
0.8%
0.7%
1.1%
1.3%
1.6%
4.7%
8.1%
6.6%
3.2%
4.1%
3.5%
2.4%
2.6%
priv
at
e
1.9%
1.8%
0.7%
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
For
eign Dir
ect 
Inv
estments
0.9%
1.0%
0.1%
1.4%
3.0%
1.2%
3.9%
1.2%
3.2%
3.0%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
WB IDS (until 2018)
IMF Countr
y R
epor
t No. 
20/171 fr
om 2019 onwar
ds.
Total inflows
Por
tfolio Inv
estments
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
IMF Countr
y R
epor
t No. 
20/171 fr
om 2019 onwar
ds.
Total inflow
, 
includes the
USD 1 billion
Sov
er
eign
Bond issuance
Remittances
11.0%
8.6%
4.8%
4.6%
8.4%
10.1%
15.0%
9.5%
12.0%
11.5%
11.3%
10.7%
10.2%
CBU (until 2018)
IMF Countr
y R
epor
t No. 
20/171 fr
om 2019 onwar
ds.
Total inwar
d 
remittances

---

102
DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
3. SUMMARY OF SDG FINANCING NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
SDGs
Av
ailable public spending 
on SDGs (accor
ding t
o the 
2019 citizen budget)
Annual r
equir
ed additional 
spending (2019 IMF 
estimat
es)
Annual r
equir
ed additional 
spending for Agricultur
e
(Agricultural S
trat
egy)
Requir
ed spending 
incr
eases for the Education 
Strat
egy
Total annual additional 
financing needs
percent 
of total 
Budget
USD 
millions
percent 
of GDP
USD 
millions
USD 
millions
USD 
millions
USD 
millions
as a 
share of 
current 
SDG 
spending
1. Poverty
8.6
1,261
-
2. Hunger
1.7
249
548
550
221%
3. Health
11
1,614
3.4
1,972
1,972
122%
4. Education
26.6
3,902
1,100
1,100
28%
5. Gender equality
0.5
73
-
6. Water and 
sanitation
5.4
792
1.0
580
580
73%
7. Energy
0.02
3
0.8
464
464 15818%
8. Growth and Jobs
3.4
499
-
9. Infrastructure and 
industrialization
3.8
557
2.4
1,392
1,392
250%
10. Inequality
0.1
15
-
11. Cities
5.1
748
-
12. Sustainable 
consumption and 
production
0
-
-
13. Climate change
0.3
44
-
14. Oceans
0
-
-
15. Lands
0.2
29
-
16. Peaceful and 
inclusive societies
2.1
308
-
17. Partnership
2.8
411
-